Analysis: Royal upset is possible Saturday in Whitmore

None of the nine entries in the Grade 3, $200,000 Whitmore Stakes on Saturday at Oaklawn stands out on overall record or speed figures. As usual in a race that has a favorites without a real edge, this is a good time to search for a value horse who shows the same or better ability.

One interesting 10-1 shot in the Whitmore is Royal Daaher, who makes his third start off the bench for trainer James DiVito. Off a 184-day layoff, Royal Daaher ran off the board Dec. 18 in a six-furlong allowance race. Two months later he made amends by capturing a local allowance race. He likely needed the December race to get back into the flow.

His Feb. 19 win came off as a strong race. Royal Daaher broke well from the inside and made his way to the front to secure the lead. He set the pace with Top Gunner applying pressure on him through the early stages.

Top Gunner briefly took the lead as they rounded the turn. But Royal Daaher’s jockey Francisco Arrieta began to work on him at the top of the stretch, and he responded well to retake the lead. Royal Daaher started to move clear of Top Gunner toward the wire for a 1 1/4-length win.

For the win, Royal Daaher earned a 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure. No other entry in this race has earned a higher figure in 2022. Hollis did post a 120 in December when taking a local, 5 1/2-furlong allowance optional-claiming race.

Third-place Atoka ran second in his next start in a March 5 allowance race on this course with a low 105 on TimeformUS. One flaw in Atoka, though, is he usually fails to finish off the race even if the competition is softer, which makes the low figure understandable. 

As for fourth-place Full Authority, he won a local optional-claiming race March 12 by 2 1/2 lengths with a 112 on TimeformUS. Remember, Royal Daaher already had beaten him by 6 3/4 lengths in the Feb. 19 sprint.

In all likelihood, Royal Daaher defeated a decent group, and the 116 TimeformUS figure holds up based on Full Authority’s next race.

Royal Daaher also may secure the lead in this spot. TimeformUS Pace Projector shows Greeley and Ben, Heart Rhythm and Hollis in front, but Greeley and Ben is not certain to start, and Heart Rhythm and Hollis are more comfortable in a pressing or stalking position rather than pace setting.

Plus, Royal Daaher makes his third start off the layoff. Notice the “best of 24” local bullet workout March 10, when Royal Daaher went five furlongs in 1:01.0. At this point Royal Daaher should feel fit and ready.

Notice the slower speed figures from the favorite Bob’s Edge. For his three most recent efforts on dirt, Bob’s Edge showed 112, 111 and 105 from TimeformUS. Despite his consistent form, he never earned a blazing number, yet the bettor pays a price because of his lower odds.

If the 8-year-old gelding Greeley and Ben starts, he also is capable of winning.

Greeley and Ben carries a three-race win streak into the Whitmore. Those wins included the Sam’s Town Stakes at Delta Downs and the Stonerside Sprint Stakes at Sam Houston. In his most recent start he also won a local Feb. 21 starter allowance with a 108 on TimeformUS.

Even though Greeley and Ben’s speed figures appear a bit low, he possesses good speed and wins often as his 30: 19-5-1 record indicates.

Exacta players might want to consider value options in Kneedeepinsnow, Atoka and Heart Rhythm for the second slot. On paper Kneedeepinsnow and Heart Rhythm should find themselves in the stalking position, while Atoka is a set closer. In the case of Heart Rhythm, he shows a 15: 4-5-4 record, which gives him 13 trifecta finishes in 15 starts. That is one consistent colt.

Royal Daaher is the top selection. Is he a single in multi-race wagers? As suggested above, it depends on whether Greeley and Ben starts. If so, then consider using both horses for horizontals.

The 10-1 morning-line odds for Royal Daaher make him a tempting win bet or even the frowned-upon win-and-place bet. Let us make the minimum value line at 8-1. If Royal Daaher starts at 8-1 or higher, consider a win-and-place bet. Such a wager on Royal Daaher or even just the win bet is preferable to using long shots underneath him and hoping Bob's Edge misfires.

Otherwise, use the race for multi-race wagers with Royal Daaher and Greeley and Ben, and move on.

Win-place: No. 6 (at 8-1 or higher).