Analysis: Rosario, Clement performing well at Saratoga meet

Choosing the right horse weighs more heavily than human factors in handicapping. But the human factor is not absolute zero either, especially at the historic Saratoga Race Course. Some jockeys and trainers will peak for this stakes-heavy meet, as winning at Saratoga is an honor that anyone in this industry can remain proud of.

For this post, it is time to discuss which jockeys and trainers are performing well at Saratoga after opening weekend, as well as those who are struggling.

The official standings are found on the NYRA website.

Saratoga Jockey Standings

On the jockey side, Joel Rosario is tied for the lead with Jose Ortiz at eight wins apiece, with Rosario riding 31 times and Ortiz riding 35 times. Rosario holds a better winning percentage at 26 percent compared with Ortiz’ 23 percent, while Ortiz owns more top three finishes -- 19 to Rosario’s 13.

Rosario’s graded stakes wins over the initial four days include the Hall of Fame Stakes (G2) on Decorated Invader and Lake Placid Stakes (G2) on Speaktomeofsummer, both on turf. Five of Rosario’s eight overall wins came on turf.  

In contrast to Rosario’s early graded stakes success, Jose Ortiz went 0 for 5 in his five graded stakes attempts since Saratoga opened.

Down the list, his brother Irad Ortiz Jr. owns four wins in 30 tries. One of them came aboard Country Grammer in the Peter Pan Stakes (G3), a Derby points race this year. Ortiz Jr. also hit the trifecta 16 times in those 30 starts, giving him a similar top three percentage to his brother.

Javier Castellano won only three times in 23 starts over the four days. However, he did win the Shine Again Stakes aboard Indian Pride and piloted runner-up finishers in the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) with Caracaro and Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) with Crystal Ball.

Rosario may take a lot of deserved criticism at times, but he is winning a lot of races right now at the Saratoga meet, including graded stakes races. Moving forward, his turf mounts deserve extra consideration.

Is there any reason for Ortiz’s cold streak in graded stakes races, or is bad luck hampering him? One of those losses came on Velvet Crush in the Coaching Club American Oaks, who failed to break with the field. Another of those losses came in the Hall of Fame against Decorated Invader, who looked invincible on paper. Still, keep the streak in mind.

Now to discuss the trainers.

Saratoga Trainer Standings

As expected, Chad Brown sits on top of the standings after four days with six wins in 16 starts, giving him a 38 percent win rate. He also hit the trifecta 13 times, resulting in an impressive 81 percent clip.

Brown won only one graded stakes though, with Country Grammer in the aforementioned Peter Pan Stakes. But in fairness, he only tried two and split his horses between Saratoga and Monmouth.

A more interesting name on the leaderboard is Christophe Clement, who shows five wins in 13 starts. With fewer starters, Clement is approximately tied with Brown in terms of win percentage with a 38 percent win rate. Clement also hit the top three nine times, giving him a 69 percent rate in that department.

Clement’s statistics are not as high as Brown. But those numbers are notable for bettors wanting a trainer who can win and offer value.

For what it's worth, two of Clement’s wins came in the Hall of Fame Stakes (G2) and Lake Placid Stakes (G2) with Rosario on board. The successful trainer/jockey combination also took a claiming race.

Two of Clement’s other wins came in 2-year-old maiden races with first-time starters Momos and Mischievous Dream, with the latter win on turf.

Steven Asmussen is tied for fifth with Todd Pletcher at only two wins each, although Asmussen’s win percentage is higher, with only eight starts compared with nine tries for Pletcher.  

Pletcher is commonly associated with unveiling sharp first-time starters at the Saratoga meet. Right now, he is 1 for 2 in maiden special weights after winning with Lucifer’s Lair on Sunday and finishing second with Mo Mischief on Saturday.

Also tied for fifth is William Mott, who owns two wins in 12 starts. But he did hit the board seven times, giving him a 58 percent rate in the top three. He also is second in purse money with $336k. A large part of that money comes from capturing the $350,000 Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) with Paris Lights and running third too with Antoinette.  

Michael Trombetta owns two wins as well. But unlike Mott, Pletcher and Asmussen, Trombetta started only twice, making him perfect.

Are there any disappointments?

Some handicappers might find Wesley Ward’s 1 for 7 record surprising. Not only is Ward only winning 14 percent of the time, but that lone win marks his only trifecta finish in the meet’s initial four days, giving him the same top three percentage as his win percentage. That is a bad sign.

Perhaps Ward traditionally cools off during this meet. If that is true, his starters deserve some skepticism from bettors moving forward.

In contrast, upgrade Clement’s horses this week as he is performing well right now. The only reason Clement is not leading the Saratoga Top 10 list is because of Brown, and that is a valid excuse for any trainer.

As stated in the beginning, though, the horse's record still deserves the most attention, as good horses can make a jockey or trainer look good, and vice versa.