Analysis: A closer look at Early Voting's Withers effort

Despite the fact that Early Voting won the Grade 3 Withers Stakes on Feb. 5 at Aqueduct by a clear margin, some debate came up over the quality of the race afterwards, especially after seeing the difference in speed figures between Beyer and TimeformUS. Early Voting is an expected starter in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct on April 9. 

The Gun Runner colt earned an initial 78 Beyer Speed Figure for his Withers win, according to the Daily Racing Form, but he also earned a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure. If accounting for a roughly 20-point scale difference, the 109 equals about an 89 Beyer. This week, Andrew Beyer announced Early Voting's winning figure for the Withers was adjusted up from a 78 to an 87. 

“There was enough of a body of evidence to suggest that 78 was too low," Beyer told DRF. He noted the the strong subsequent performances of at least six other horses in the Withers, including Un Ojo, who went on to win the Rebel (G2).

Forget about using speed figures for this specific race, though. With no other two-turn dirt route on the card, both brands probably had a difficult time calculating the final number for the nine-furlong Withers.

Assessing Early Voting’s winning effort in the Withers is better accomplished by studying the competition and pace scenario.

Five horses from the Withers made their next starts.

Runner-up Un Ojo surprised bettors in the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn by winning at 75-1 after stalking the pace and pushing through the rail in the stretch run. He defeated Ethereal Road, who rallied four wide on the far turn and almost had the race won before a ground-saving Un Ojo prevailed.

Grantham started the Withers in fourth and ended up in fourth. In his next start in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), Grantham’s odds floated up to 37-1. From the rail, he saved ground throughout the race and fought hard to earn second over Shipsational as Classic Causeway drew clear.

For the upset Rebel win, Un Ojo earned a 107 on TimeformUS. Grantham earned a similar 106 for his second-place at Tampa Bay.

With the Withers competition established as decent after Un Ojo and Grantham made their next starts, analyzing the pace that Early Voting set might also help in assessing his chances in moving forward.  

From a visual standpoint, the Withers pace seemed fast. Early Voting secured the lead quickly heading into the first turn and Courvoisier chased in second as the field spread out on the backside.

Overall, 16 lengths separated Early Voting and the trailing Un Ojo early on. When the field is thinned out, it usually represents a fast pace.

Early Voting set fractions of 23.57, 48.04 and 1:14.29, which are difficult fractions to assess at first because of the lack of two-turn routes. Handicappers cannot make a direct comparison between two-turn races.

For what it's worth, TimeformUS marked all fractions in red. Early Voting also received blazing pace figures of 151 and 151 through the first half-mile before tapering off to a 126 after the fast start.

Given how the field spread out and the high pace figures, Early Voting probably set a grueling pace and simply held on late. Despite the clear margin in mid-stretch, notice how jockey Jose Ortiz began to whip him.

Early Voting had little left for the finish, which affected his final time. He gave all his energy to the first half-mile and those blazing pace figures.

Because Early Voting ran as fast as did in the early stages, he made the rest of the field run fast to keep up, and they all became too tired to catch him. Un Ojo, Gilded Age and Grantham made up some ground, but none of them were able to seriously threaten.

Courvoisier understandably faded to seventh after chasing Early Voting through those grueling fractions. Why did Courvoisier disappoint bettors with a poor third-place finish (out of three horses) in the City of Brotherly Love Stakes at Parx Racing in his next start? Perhaps chasing Early Voting in the Withers fried him before running at Parx.

Early Voting ran a quality race in the Withers. His final speed figure is not important, especially with no other two-turn dirt routes to study.

Early Voting could use the same tactics and bottom out the field again in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) next month. But if he could learn to throttle down the speed a notch and save something for the stretch, it might benefit him in the long run. Either way, Early Voting looks like one of the names to watch as the Derby trail winds down.