Analysis: Rated R Superstar benefits from rail in Sexton Mile

Rated R Superstar makes his 61st start in the Grade 3, $400,000 Steve Sexton Mile at Lone Star Park on Memorial Day, and he is in with a realistic chance to add another graded stakes race to his career at a value price.

As a closer, Rater R Superstar needs a reasonable pace to help set up his late kick. It also helps when Rated R Superstar initially saves ground on the far turn, before tipping out and aiming for the lead at the top of the stretch.

Watch how Rated R Superstar rallied in his two wins this year.   

In the Fifth Season Stakes at Oaklawn, Rated R Superstar made an early move through the inside before the field reached the far turn. With no room around him, he waited in the pocket position for a few moments before they started rounding the far turn. The wait allowed him to save some ground.

When Mucho and Thomas Shelby started to open up, jockey David Cabrera took the opportunity to tip outside and take aim at the leaders.

After a long stretch drive, Rated R Superstar eventually found more towards the wire and prevailed by a neck over Mucho.

One month later, Rated R Superstar finished a closing fifth in the Razorback Handicap (G3). Cross the race out. The effort is forgivable because Plainsman and Thomas Shelby controlled the race the entire way around. None of the closers in that race made a dent on them. 

In March, Rated R Superstar competed in the Essex Handicap (G3). This time he waited at the back for a longer period than he did in the Fifth Season. Regardless, he still saved crucial ground as he did before.    

Under Cabrera, Rated R Superstar again stays inside for the first portion of the far turn, before tipping out seamlessly and taking aim at the front while running in the middle of the track in the stretch run. He won by 2 1/4 lengths.

What happened to Rated R Superstar in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2)? He flattened out to a disappointing seventh after rallying on the far turn.

Besides the rise in class to a Grade 2, Rated R Superstar did not initially save ground when rounding the far turn under a new rider in Ricardo Santana Jr.

In fairness to Santana, the path through the inside on the far turn appears blocked when watching the replay. Santana probably had no other choice but to rally wide and hope he could sustain the move.

Unfortunately, the old gelding flattened out late to seventh.

The nine-furlong Oaklawn Handicap distance likely did Rated R Superstar no favors either considering the wide move. The fading effort is forgivable and gives backers some value as he attempts to rebound.

Cabrera did a great job riding Rated R Superstar in those earlier wins this year. For this race, there is another jockey switch to Reylu Gutierrez, but that is not a huge concern because Rated R Superstar drew post No. 1 anyway.

The rail post should promote the same kind of trip that led to Rated R Superstar’s Fifth Season and Essex Handicap wins at Oaklawn, and the cutback to one mile is another positive as well as he will not flatten out.

On paper, there are at least four speed horses who could contest the lead and give Rated R Superstar some pace to run into once he makes his move.

According to TimeformUS Pace Projector, Flash of Mischief, Mine That Star and the morning line favorite Shaaz are the three runners expected up front. Also toss in Mish to the early pace mix, as the improved 5-year-old gelding won his last two races at Gulfstream Park impressively in gate-to-wire fashion.

Shaaz is another one of those former Bob Baffert-trained horses who makes his debut for trainer Sean McCarthy because of the suspension.

Although Shaaz shows a 3 for 3 record with formidable speed figures that fit at this Grade 3 level, the west coast shippers are harder to trust this year. As the favorite, Shaaz has no stakes experience either with only his maiden win and two optional claiming races at his home track under Baffert to his credit. Sometimes speed figures earned at lower level do not translate well when the horse attempts a jump in class. 

For bettors who need to protect their multi-race wagers, Shaaz is probably useful in that way. Otherwise, he offers no value in his graded stakes debut.

Rated R Superstar is 10-1 on the morning line. Perhaps those odds are a little high. At 8-1 or higher, he is the right choice for win and place bettors.

Win/place: 1 (at 8-1 or higher)