Louisiana Derby play: Why Proxy is the pick

Proxy has been a frustrating horse on the Kentucky Derby trail for bettors at this point. As stated in the earlier Odds & Analysis post, though, there are reasons to give him another chance on top in the Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds.

For one, Proxy receives blinkers for the first time. Perhaps wearing the added equipment helps correct the mistake he made approaching the far turn of the Risen Star Stakes (G2), when he oddly lost contact with the three horses in front of him.

To Proxy’s credit, he did grind his way back into second.  

Blinkers are sometimes used to add speed, but they also help horses focus better. The effect of blinkers on Proxy is unclear until he runs on Saturday. Regardless, it gives bettors one reason to believe Proxy could turn the tables on Mandaloun. After all, Proxy lost to Mandaloun by only 1 1/4 lengths, which is not a huge margin to overcome on dirt.

For what it is worth, trainer Michael Stidham also put blinkers on Mystic Guide last fall, which led to his success in the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and runner-up finish in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). 

Also, Proxy stretches out to 1 3/16 miles and owns the right pedigree for longer routes. This is a son of Tapit, the sire of three Belmont Stakes winners. Also, Proxy’s dam Panty Raid won the 2007 American Oaks (G1) at 1 1/4 miles and the Spinster Stakes at nine furlongs in a successful career that led to over $1 million in earnings.

At nine furlongs, maybe handicappers could concede to the Risen Star winner Mandaloun. But again, Proxy lost by only 1 1/4 lengths. Assuming Mandaloun does not move up at a slightly longer distance, Proxy needs only a small improvement from either the equipment or distance.

With that said, Mandaloun remains an obvious win threat. After all, he took the Risen Star Stakes (G2) in a professional manner from a clear stalking position in his first try with blinkers. Before the Risen Star, he also ran third in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) after a wide trip and slower pace.

The only knocks on Mandaloun are the small winning margin for his Risen Star win and short price. Bettors must eat a short price on a horse who did not dominate roughly the same group he meets again.

Odds and value aside, Mandaloun is a talented Into Mischief colt trained by Brad Cox with tactical speed. He is either the best or second best horse on paper. As good as Mandaloun has been in his short four-race career, it is hard to call him a standout with a huge speed figure or blowout win to use as evidence. His advantage is minimal at best. 

In the Odds & Analysis post, the initial suggestion was to bet Proxy to win and place. Betting Proxy in that fashion is still a solid strategy.

For those who prefer Midnight Bourbon or Hot Rod Charlie, their odds also offer enough value for a win/place bet.

Another idea is a trifecta wheel with Proxy keyed in first and second.  

For example, bettors might punch in 4 over 5,6,7 over 3,5,6,7,8 and 5,6,7 over 4 over 3,5,6,7,8 in order to key Proxy in first and second. The positions of the other numbers come from the labels of each horse in the Odds & Analysis post.

For example, Run Classic is not in the top slot because he was labeled as “Use underneath.” But he is fine as a horse to toss in the third slot of trifectas.

Both trifecta wheels cost $12 using a $1 base, for a total of $24.

Some bettors might find it strange to key a horse alone in second, but this is a regular strategy done by better gamblers out there, especially with horses who habitually threaten late and fail to get the win.

Even if the chosen horse is not Proxy, this is a good opportunity to take a chance against Mandaloun in vertical wagers with another horse, while realizing Mandaloun is capable of winning again. If he does win again at a short price, that is gambling.