Analysis: Proxy could turn the table in Risen Star Stakes

Most value bettors hope for a large and competitive field because it becomes more difficult for one horse to fall too low on the tote board. For horseplayers who fall into that category, the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds offers an excellent betting opportunity with 13 horses (before scratches) set to travel nine furlongs on Saturday.  

There are three horses who are interesting, with one of them a possible long shot.

Proxy is the first one to discuss, and he is an obvious choice.

In his graded-stakes debut, Proxy gave chase in second to Midnight Bourbon for the entire length of the Lecomte Stakes (G3) and ended up in that position while losing by one length. Because the pace scenario went entirely in Midnight Bourbon's favor, Proxy arguably ran just as well.

Consider that Midnight Bourbon held a one or two-length advantage early on, while also posting moderate fractions of 24.68 and 48.99.

With a comfortable lead and moderate pace, Midnight Bourbon held all the cards.

For his part, Proxy did make a threatening move on the far turn by reaching Midnight Bourbon’s side. However, the easy first half left Midnight Bourbon with plenty more run for the stretch, leaving Proxy to fight for the runner-up position with the heavily favored Mandaloun.

On that note, it is a great sign that Proxy beat Mandaloun for second place. Mandaloun only put his head in front for a brief moment before Proxy fought back to complete the exacta one length behind Midnight Bourbon.

Proxy earned a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which is tied for the third-highest figure in the field and falls only one point behind Midnight Bourbon’s 110 for the Lecomte victory. Based on that 109 number alone, Proxy is a contender who is capable of moving forward on the scale. 

In terms of pedigree for nine furlongs, Proxy is loaded with stamina in his blood. His sire Tapit has made three Belmont Stakes winners already including Tapwrit, Creator and Tonalist. On the bottom side, Proxy’s dam Panty Raid took the 1 1/4-mile American Oaks in 2007 and already produced successful turf stakes router Micheline.  

Proxy is the top selection, although there is a slight danger he becomes overbet.

The second choice in this analysis might offer more excitement. Despite his distant fourth-place finish in the Lecomte, Santa Cruiser is a player.

Watch the start of the Lecomte. Game Day Play in Post 5 and Red N Wild in Post 7 come in toward Santa Cruiser’s path, shutting him off at the start.

Perhaps out of sync, Santa Cruiser lags at rear for the first half of the race before finally getting into a good rhythm approaching the far turn. After six furlongs in 1:13.57, Santa Cruiser comes into the picture.

Santa Cruiser rallies well to pass the slower horses and secure fourth. Even though he loses by 9 3/4 lengths, he finishes six lengths ahead of Arabian Prince in fifth.  

With a cleaner start, it is hard to say whether Santa Cruiser was going to threaten the leaders. Regardless, he made notable progress late.

Because of the margin of loss and the fact that trainer Keith Desormeaux is not known as a "super" trainer, Santa Cruiser is likely to offer attractive odds to value bettors. At double digits, Santa Cruiser is a tempting play off the troubled trip. 

As for the third choice Señor Buscador, he holds the high TimeformUS Speed Figure and best closing punch, as shown in the Remington Springboard Mile.

From a visual standpoint, Señor Buscador gave a perfect performance in the Springboard Mile. After giving up 12 lengths in the opening quarter, he made up significant ground approaching the far turn and took aim at the front pack.

Senor Buscador not only passed the leaders, but he poured it on late with a 5 3/4-length victory over Cowan in second and Red N Wild in third. For the winning effort, he also earned a field-high 116 on TimeformUS.

To warn bettors though, Cowan did not back up the Springboard Mile effort in the Smarty Jones Stakes, finishing a distant second by 10 1/4 lengths to Caddo River. Also, Red N Wild ran a dismal eighth and last in the Lecomte Stakes, losing by 23 lengths.

Another red flag is that Señor Buscador races without Lasix for the first time. Some horses run the same, but at this point, it is unclear how he will respond.  

Señor Buscador remains usable in multi-race wagers based on the 116 TimeformUS figure. Given his half-brother Runaway Ghost took the 2018 Sunland Derby (G3) at nine furlongs, he is likely to enjoy stretching out as well. However, the poor quality of the Springboard Mile field and first time without Lasix make trusting him alone difficult. 

Unless Proxy is wildly bet, he is the top choice. Just keep an eye on other handicapping articles and make sure the hype does not get out of hand. If he becomes overbet, then think about switching to Santa Cruiser for a win or place bet.

Regardless of the vertical wagers, Proxy, Santa Cruiser and Señor Buscador belong on multi-race tickets. Bettors who can afford a fourth option might throw in Midnight Bourbon. It all depends on the difficulty of the other legs.