Analysis: Private Mission deserves a closer look in Distaff

Private Mission might seem pace-compromised at first glance in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff Saturday at Del Mar. But, there is enough improvement in her form this year to believe she can upset Letruska.

The most noticeable trait about Private Mission is that she keeps moving forward with distance and seasoning. Each time Private Mission stretches out for trainer Bob Baffert, she looks better than last time.

Private Mission began her 3-year-old campaign in June by winning a six-furlong optional claiming race at Santa Anita by 3/4 of a length with a 112 on TimeformUS. The 112 represented her best figure, but overall, there was nothing to get too excited about yet. Most 3-year-olds run faster than their 2-year-old figures, and Private Mission was no exception. 

Baffert then tried stretching out Private Mission in the one-mile Torrey Pines Stakes (G3) at Del Mar, and this time Private Mission dominated the field easily.

Watch as Flavien Prat gave Private Mission only a hand ride in the stretch.

Private Mission won by 6 1/2 lengths, and more was possible.

For the win, Private Mission earned another career-high figure of 114 on TimeformUS. But no one needed a speed figure to appreciate the win.

In her most recent race, Private Mission started in the 1 1/16-mile Zenyatta Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita as the even-money favorite off the Torrey Pines effort. This time, she faced stiff competition from her stablemate As Time Goes By, the 9 1/4-length winner of the Santa Margarita Stakes (G2) earlier in the year.  

Private Mission sat off the leader Samurai Charm early on, and then she took over and held off As Time Goes By late for a 2 1/4-length win.

Private Mission won with a smaller margin, but the win still was impressive to watch.

Consider that Private Mission beat a more experienced 4-year-old filly with past success in As Time Goes By under mostly a hand ride.

Prat did use the whip sparingly, but once again, Private Mission gave the impression that she was capable of more. For the Zenyatta win, Private Mission ran another career-high TimeformUS Speed Figure of 120.

Private Mission owns speed, but she does not require the lead. This is not another War Emblem, Game On Dude, Bayern or even Medina Spirit, all Baffert-trained runners who thrived on setting the pace.  

As stated above, Private Mission settled off the pacesetter in the Zenyatta. In the Torrey Pines, she initially traveled a half-length off Lady Mystify before taking over. Yes, a speed duel with Letruska remains a danger for any speed horse in the Distaff. If Private Mission draws well outside of Letruska though, she probably can settle off Letruska’s flank or give a length until the time looks right to attack.

Now Private Mission stretches out to nine furlongs in the Distaff, which looks like no problem given the improvement with each stretchout.

Is there a pedigree reason for Private Mission’s success in routes?

Private Mission’s dam Private Gift is an Unbridled half-sister to two successful dirt routers in Alumni Hall and Secret Status. Alumni Hall won the 2005 Ben Ali Stakes (G3) and Fayette Stakes (G3), both at nine furlongs. Secret Status had an excellent 3-year-old season where she won the 2000 Kentucky Oaks and Mother Goose Stakes (G1) as well. 

At one point, the public considered Private Mission’s sire Into Mischief mainly a short-winded influence. If he is bred to the right mare with stamina though, he can produce routers. Private Gift has plenty of stamina.

As another plus, Private Mission is a talented Baffert-trained filly who will not go favored. All eyes will fall on Letruska, and many bettors will single the division leader. Letruska's mere presence makes the odds on other entries in the race more attractive, whether one likes Private Mission or another runner. Value is what makes the Breeders' Cup great.

Letruska still holds the best chance to win. Few people doubt that. She could finish off the campaign with one more win to put a stamp on 2021. If Letruska does win the Distaff, she should make the Horse of the Year ballot and possibly make history as another female winner of the award. 

Only the betting value on Letruska looks unappealing.

On the other hand, Private Mission enters the Distaff a bit under the radar and could peak at the right time in the Breeders' Cup. As described above, she owns speed but does not need the lead, she and has been improving with for a trainer who knows how to win.

Private Mission is an intriguing value play.