Analysis: Clear trends to spotting a Kentucky Derby winner

Given the 1 1/4-mile distance of the Kentucky Derby, it is understandable that this time of year, some handicappers may be looking for the right closer. Many of these 3-year-olds will get tired late trying the distance for the first time. But the assumption that horses rallying now will improve running longer remains a trap for bettors.

With the points system in place since the 2013 Derby, the latter point is especially true because it's more difficult than ever for a true sprinter with blind speed to make it into the race. There will be exceptions, but in general, the Derby has favored pressers and tactical types, which is what you should be looking for this time of year from a win prospect.

To see how things have changed with points in designated races setting the field as opposed to graded stakes earnings from any distance event, you only need to go back one more year, to 2012.

Bodemeister secured the early lead by one length over Trinniberg. Previously, Trinniberg used his speed to victory sprinting in the Swale Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream and Bay Shore Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct. He had the graded earnings, however, to run in the Derby.

With Trinniberg on his tail, Bodemeister set the pace through 22.32 and 45.39 fractions. He put the short-winded Trinniberg away on the far turn and opened up early in the stretch, but the fast pace left him vulnerable. I'll Have Another mowed down Bodemeister from seventh early on, and the closing Dullahan traveled from 11th to pick up a third-place finish.

Then, the points-era began. But what happened in 2013 is an anomaly. With blinkers on for the first time, Palace Malice wrestled the lead from Goldencents before the first turn and opened up with a blazing 22.57 opening quarter and 45.33 half-mile. Not only did Palace Malice eliminate his own chances, he forced the other speed horses to chase him too.

Orb, who sat in 16th early, took advantage of the pace collapse and gutted out a closing win by 2 1/2 lengths over fellow closer Golden Soul. Orb didn't win again.

Exceptions to any horse trend happen, of course. Perhaps a closer such as Sole Volante or Enforceable cuts through traffic and pulls off another closing win in the 2020 Kentucky Derby.

But overall, it seems more logical to choose a quality horse with tactical speed on top, because that kind of horse can clear the traffic and lay right off the pacesetter. “Quality” is the key word, though, as not every horse has the class or figures to win the Kentucky Derby, even if they own the style.

Looking back at Saturday's San Felipe Stakes (G2), Authentic owns the right kind of running style. His Bob Baffert-trained stablemate Nadal will try to win this weekend's Rebel Stakes (G2) in similar fashion.

Let's look back at past Derbys to show what makes this strategy the right one.

2014: California Chrome

He used his speed to clear most of the field from Post 5. He settled into a close-range tracking position in third, right outside of Uncle Sigh and Chitu through a 23.04 opening quarter and 47.37 half.

It is not a good idea to compare raw fractions on different days, let alone different years, but the half-mile went two seconds slower than in 2013. 

California Chrome overwhelmed Uncle Sigh and Chitu on the far turn and opened up in the stretch run, creating a five-length advantage. He became slightly tired late and won by 1 ¾ lengths.

The closing runner-up Commanding Curve needed to tip out eight-wide in the stretch, while the third-place Danza took a hard bump before the first turn and dealt with traffic en route to hitting the board towards the end.

2015: American Pharoah

American Pharoah enjoyed almost the same trip.

From a wide post, the eventual Triple Crown winner used his speed to clear most of the field. He settled into a close stalking position in third, outside of his stablemate Dortmund and Firing Line through a 23.24 opening quarter and 47.34 half, which approximately matches the 2014 half-mile.

American Pharoah took a while to put away Firing Line and Dortmund in the stretch. Eventually though, he prevailed by one length over Firing Line under a hard drive. Dortmund finished three lengths behind in third. 

The three speed horses who started 1-2-3 kept those three spots at the end, with only the first and third horses switching order late. 

Frosted made up eight lengths from the half-mile to the finish. But the moderate fractions (by Derby standards) made sure that he failed.

2016: Nyquist

He used his speed to clear and secure a close stalking position in third, outside of Gun Runner and two lengths off Danzing Candy.

Danzing Candy had injected some speed back into the race by out-sprinting Nyquist to the lead before the turn and opening up in 22.58 and 45.72. As expected, he folded on the far turn, with Gun Runner taking the lead first.

But Nyuist kept steadily moving forward in the stretch. After putting away Gun Runner, Nyquist held off a closing Exaggerator to win by 1 ¼ lengths. Despite Exaggerator's strong closing run from 15th, speed horses still took first and third, with Gun Runner finishing ahead of a closing Mohaymen to close out the trifecta.

The common thread from 2014 to 2016 is “using speed to clear the field” and "sitting in third."

2017: Always Dreaming

Always Dreaming used his speed in 2017 to secure a pressing position, right outside of State of Honor after moderate 22.70 and 46.53 fractions.

After putting away State of Honor and securing the lead on the far turn, Always Dreaming repelled challenges from Battle of Midway and Irish War Cry. He went on to win over a closing Lookin at Lee by 2 ¾ lengths. 

Third choice Classic Empire closed for fourth, 8 ¾ lengths behind Always Dreaming. Notice that he was roughed up at the start from Post 14 and subsequently settled way back in 13th. When rallying around the far turn, he went wide and got bumped in midstretch. Without a sharp break and upfront position, traffic is almost always an issue in a 20-horse field. 

The pace also did not collapse because they went in 46.53 at the half-mile. State of Honor provided some speed, but he was not a true sprinter.  

2018: Justify

In 2018, Justify brought hype of an undefeated record, albeit with only three starts. He also offered speed, which he figured to use in order to secure position. Despite the points system, a speedy sprinter in Promises Fulfilled made the field due to winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2).

Justify broke well and secured a pressing role right outside Promises Fulfilled, and the latter took them through swift fractions of 22.54 and 45.77 after a half-mile. Speed horses Flameaway and Bolt d'Oro settled into third and fourth, not far behind. Good Magic tracked the leaders in fifth.

Justify put away Promises Fulfilled and repelled the challenge of Good Magic in the stretch run to win by 2 ½ lengths. Once again speed dominated, with the horses who took up second and fifth early capturing first and second. 

Audible and Instilled Regard closed well for third and fourth. Both of them experienced traffic issues throughout the race, as Audible steadied at one point and had to alter course, and Instilled Regard had a rough start. 

Both of them failed to get a pace collapse either, despite the 45.77 half.

The link between 2017 and 2018 is the pressing position, as both Always Dreaming and Justify flanked the pacesetter and took control.

2019: Country House (sort of)

Last year, the controversial Maximum Security secured the lead early through 22.31 and 46.62 fractions, resembling the fractions in 2017.

For the most part, Maximum Security enjoyed a comfortable lead. Notice how War of Will traveled rank in the pocket position, indicating a moderate pace. In a fast pace, the field will spread out and give breathing room.

Maximum Security put away his pace foes on the far turn (while causing trouble) and then held off Country House in the stretch run, before getting disqualified.

Even discounting Maximum Security, look at Country House's running line. He displayed more speed than expected by securing eighth by the half-mile, which allowed him to avoid the traffic problems of closing from the clouds.

Also, Code of Honor fought for third on the rail after initially settling in ninth early. Tacitus was the lone deep closer in the Top 4, rallying from 16th to cross the wire fourth.

Since 2014, every horse to cross the wire first has come from third or higher. Orb is the odd exception in the points era, as he came all the way from 16th.

If Country House is factored in, then the standard is mid-pack or higher. Clearly, though, standards are more applicable to Maximum Security regardless of his interference.

With two months left, 2020's picture will become more clear soon. But don't reach too far back off the pace for your Derby win pick. The trend is obvious.