Analysis: Plus Que Parfait owns right style for Lecomte Stakes

With large graded stakes fields comes the tendency to overthink the race and chase unattractive longshots. This happens every year in the Kentucky Derby, when the attraction of 20 horses leads handicappers in all different kinds of directions.

Sometimes the right answer remains the most obvious one, and that looks like the case in Saturday's Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds, where they'll go a mile and 70 yards with Derby qualifying points up for grabs.

Plus Que Parfait is a progressively improving ridgling, and he earned deserving morning line favoritism off a close second-place finish to the battle-tested Signalman in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs.

After racing toward the back of the middle group, Plus Que Parfait moved wide on the far turn and steadily made up ground under urging from Julien Leparoux in the stretch.

Signalman, who previously finished a close third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, ended up saving more ground and narrowly out-kicked Plus Que Parfait by a neck in the stretch run. In defeat, Plus Que Parfait proved he holds the same kind of class.

Plus Que Parfait earned a career-high 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the runner-up finish. Granted, he received a generous pace setup there, but according to the Pace Projector, the Lecomte is marked in red indicating another fast pace to help him. 

With a clear run, this is the probable winner. Attempting to beat the favorite is a good practice in handicapping, but what is the point if the favorite is best at a value price?

In terms of class, War of Will arguably surpasses Plus Que Parfait. His record shows a second-place finish in the Summer Stakes (G1) at Woodbine, a close fourth in the Bourbon Stakes (G3) at Keeneland and a fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.

The problem is, those races came on turf..

War of Will finally switched to the main track on Nov. 24 at Churchill Downs, and he broke his maiden impressively by five lengths with a good 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure, albeit on a sloppy dirt surface. For some reason, turf horses tend to handle slop.

As a son of War Front out of a Sadler’s Wells mare, his pedigree admittedly suggests he belongs on grass. However, a turf pedigree is not necessarily a disqualification.

Remember Mubtaahij? He shows a turf over turf pedigree, yet he ran well against some talented horses on dirt over the course of his career in North America. In 2017, he managed to pick up a win in the Awesome Again Stakes (G1) on fast dirt.

Plus, War of Will’s half-brother Tacticus won twice on dirt in 2015, taking the Birdstone Stakes and Temperance Hill Invitational before he was done. To counter that evidence, Tacticus’ sire was also the great A.P. Indy, one of the best dirt influences out there.

Regardless, War of Will deserves the benefit of the doubt before writing him off as a turf-only colt. In a race lacking contenders with proven class, he is a contender.

The next horse to discuss is Roiland, who finished fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club after attempting to move through the inside paths. Most horses prefer to rally outside, a less intimidating path compared to squeezing through tight spots.

For example, Limonite rallied wide for third in the same race, finishing only two lengths behind Signalman. Two races ago, Roiland actually defeated Limonite in a Churchill optional claimer by rallying wide, showing how inside traffic affects a late run. 

Despite the large field size in the LeComte, Roiland deserves consideration because he offers double-digit odds and might find a better trip if he gets lucky. As with Plus Que Parfait, the pace sets up once again, and he only needs to pick off tired horses.

The last main contender is Mr. Money, who finished a fading fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, eventually ending up more than nine lengths behind Game Winner.

Two races ago, Mr. Money won a route by more than three lengths at Churchill, making the Breeders’ Cup fade less worrisome from a distance standpoint. Also, think about all the horses he finished in front of, including Gunmetal Gray and Mind Control, both Derby prep winners in the new year.

On class alone, this Goldencents colt is worth including with the three other runners discussed. On a negative note, TimeformUS gives trainer Bret Calhoun a 0 rating in 3-year-old stakes races at Fair Grounds, and rider Gabriel Saez is “cold” right now.

One fringe contender to consider is Tackett, who won two in a row at Fair Grounds, including a maiden race by over seven lengths and an optional claimer.

His speed figures do not suggest a fast horse, as he only earned a 98 on TimeformUS in the optional claiming win, but he did run in a straight line and displayed good determination to hold off the runner-up Owendale, who runs in a Thursday allowance at Fair Grounds. Tackett could move forward in this race.

The rest of the field does not appear too strong.

Malpais will attract attention, but his pedigree suggests he is a sprinter. His dam raced 21 times, and 20 of those starts came in sprints. Also, his three siblings made 22 combined starts, and all of them came in sprints. He is unlikely to enjoy routing. 

Hog Creek Hustle's pedigree gives the impression of a sprinter as well. His stakes-winning half-brother Majestic Dunhill made 11 starts, all in sprints. 

Manny Wah ran second in the local six-furlong Sugar Bowl Stakes. He needs to show he can take a high-level route race without a speed bias, as he enjoyed one in his Oct. 11 Keeneland win. The son of Will Take Charge finished also finished a non-threatening fourth in the Street Sense Stakes, when the talented Improbable romped.

Tight Ten, the front-runner in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) last September before giving in late to Cairo Cat, is most likely a pace casualty in this spot. 

In this situation, the favorite is the right choice and offers some value, too. While Plus Que Parfait is not an “exciting” choice at first glance, think about what backers will get if his final odds hold at 4-1 or higher: the best horse with an expected pace setup.

For those still searching to beat the favorite, War of Will, Roiland and Mr. Money work as other main options alongside Plus Que Parfait, or solid Bs to back the ticket up.