Withers analysis: Pletcher's maiden winner might be the pick

Derby hopefuls take the nine-furlong test early in the Grade 3, $250,000 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct on Saturday. The race contains nine aspiring 3-year-olds, including Jerome Stakes winner Capo Kane, who is capable of picking up another trail win.

This analysis will go in a different direction though, while giving respect to Capo Kane. For those searching for a price, check out Donegal Bay.

Donegal Bay began his career slowly with a non-threatening sixth-place finish in an Aug. 15 Saratoga maiden race. He lost by 11 1/4 lengths after not responding late.

But Donegal Bay made a nice return on Dec. 12 at Gulfstream, leading the field from gate to wire in a 4 1/4-length victory with a 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

The improved speed is notable, as well as the strong finish.

After moderate fractions of 23.60, 46.52 and 1:10.99, Donegal Bay draws clear and wins the one-mile race in a mild 1:36.58.

Jockey Luis Saez hits Donegal Bay with the crop only once in mid-stretch, although he does need to remind his mount a couple of times. The stretch urging is fine, considering the break. Donegal Bay made his first start off a 119-day layoff in his maiden win. Given the long campaign ahead, trainer Todd Pletcher likely did not crank him up just to break his maiden.

Remember that most horses peak in their second or third starts off the layoff. The fact that Donegal Bay won with a strong finish is a great sign.

To back up the race's quality, the runner-up Simovitch broke his maiden at Gulfstream by 3 1/2 lengths in his next start on Jan. 9. He did not beat a great field, but he at least he won by a decent margin. Also, the third-place American Law ran a decent second on Jan. 23, also at Gulfstream.

As for the stretch-out question, Donegal Bay is bred to run longer underneath. On the dam side, this is a grandson of Flute, who won the 2001 Kentucky Oaks and Alabama Stakes (G1) at 1 1/4 miles. Donegal Bay's sire Uncle Mo already sired a Derby champion in Nyquist as well. 

Sometimes pedigree analysis is not exact. Horses run contrary to their bloodlines all the time. But on paper alone, it looks good for him. 

Given his even tempo style and pedigree, the stretch out to nine furlongs is likely to help Donegal Bay hit a new level. 

Donegal Bay is the choice, but demand value on him if taking a shot. He is improved, but given his mild speed figure and lack of nine-furlong experience, bettors need to demand a good price given there are some holes.   

For a second option, Risk Taking is one horse to take seriously after his win in a local nine-furlong maiden race on Dec. 13. He won by 2 1/4 lengths over Rock Sugar, with The Reds 3/4 of a length behind Rock Sugar in third. Out of the non-Laurel horses, Risk Taking holds the high TimeformUS figure at 102.

Why are Laurel horses with big figures ignored on this blog? Ever since Alwaysmining's flop in the Preakness, it has seemed clear that Laurel horses do not transfer their form elsewhere on a consistent basis. 

In any case, The Reds took two more tries to break his maiden, but he finally did break it locally on Jan. 31 with a 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Also, the last-place Dazzle Time went on to finish second in a local Jan. 17 maiden race with a 99 on TimeformUS.

Risk Taking was able to save crucial ground on both turns before tipping out for the stretch. If the horse is able to handle taking dirt, that is a great trip, especially in a nine-furlong race where saving ground might help out even more.

With trainer Chad Brown behind the colt and a strong race on his record after two disappointing maiden efforts, he deserves consideration.

Finally, there is Capo Kane.

Readers do not need a long description of Capo Kane. With his speed, he broke his maiden by 4 1/2 lengths and won the Jerome Stakes by 6 1/4 lengths. Visually, it looks like there is more in the tank, despite a few crop strikes needed in that win.

Jockey Dylan Davis possibly made use of the crop to keep Capo Kane in a straight line. At the top of the stretch, the horse tried to drift out before clearing the field.

Capo Kane stretches out to nine furlongs now. There are no strong hints on his bottom-side pedigree on whether he is capable of running this long.

Capo Kane’s third dam Tuzla was a nice runner who won the nine-furlong Ramona Handicap (G1) in 1999. With that said, the majority of her successful races were from one mile to 1 1/16 miles. For those who prefer the top side in pedigree analysis, Capo Kane is sired by Street Sense, an obvious route influence and winner of the 2007 Kentucky Derby.

Yes, Donegal Bay, Risk Taking and Capo Kane all deserve spots in the Pick 4.

From a value standpoint, though, the public will probably overlook Donegal Bay since he does not seem blazingly fast. At 5-1 or higher, Donegal Bay is a worthy win or place bet.