Florida Derby play: Pletcher entry can beat Greatest Honour

As a bettor, attempting to beat Greatest Honour in the Grade 1, $750,000 Florida Derby on Saturday is not an easy task. This is the kind of horse who makes handicappers think he can lose with mild speed figures and a disadvantageous closing style, but he keeps passing each test on the Gulfstream route to the Kentucky Derby.

Greatest Honour enters with a three-race win streak, which includes closing victories in the local Holy Bull Stakes (G2) and Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). He took the former race by an impressive 5 3/4 lengths and the latter by 1 1/2 lengths.

To his credit in the Fountain of Youth, Greatest Honour overcame traffic problems that affected his final time before prevailing at the end. Forget about any figure for the race as he had to wait on the turn and only seriously ran in the stretch when mowing down the tough pacesetter Drain the Clock.

Because the Fountain of Youth was the only two-turn route on the card, it also made the race extra difficult on speed figure makers. Notice that within a few hours, Greatest Honour’s Beyer Figure changed from an 83 to 89.

From a visual standpoint, Greatest Honour is reminiscent of the Shug McGaughey-trained Orb, who won the 2013 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and overcame a slow pace to mow down the favored Itsmyluckyday in the 2013 Florida Derby (G1) before closing for the win the Kentucky Derby after a wild pace setup.

In addition, Greatest Honour sports the best stamina pedigree in the 3-year-old crop, with Tapit as his sire and Better Than Honour on the bottom as a standout second dam. Tapit has been the sire of three Belmont Stakes champions, while Better Than Honour threw two Belmont winners in Jazil and Rags to Riches. This colt can run forever. 

Yet, Greatest Honour is beatable in the Florida Derby.

According to TimeformUS Pace Projector, the pace scenario is coming up slow for this race, with Collaborate leading and Nova Rags, Spielberg and Papetu nearby. Behind those four runners on the graphic are Quantum Leap and Known Agenda. Greatest Honour is even farther back along with Soup and Sandwich in seventh and eighth.

Collaborate is tempting as Drain the Clock’s replacement for Saffie Joseph Jr. He broke his maiden by 12 1/2 lengths and figures to set the pace. However, he lacks the right seasoning as a maiden stepping up.

Nova Rags, Spielberg and Papetu are not standout talents and belong in the discussions for bottom slots in vertical wagers, rather than the win analysis. In Papetu’s case, he draws a wide post position without the speed to clear.

The logical alternative choice is Known Agenda, who took a local nine-furlong optional claiming race last month by 11 lengths.

Watch him blow Top Gun Tommy away at the top of the stretch.

Known Agenda did not beat any horse of quality, but the longer distance and blinkers woke up him up after a disappointing fifth-place finish in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay and distant third by nine lengths in the Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct.

Some handicappers might argue that Lasix also contributed to Known Agenda's local 11-length win. Although it is possible, there is not enough evidence yet.

Without Lasix, Known Agenda broke his maiden and beat Greatest Honour by a head after a stretch battle in an Aqueduct maiden race on Nov. 8. Before that, Known Agenda also ran second to the respected Highly Motivated at Belmont. Highly Motivated went on to take the Nyquist Stakes at Keeneland. 

Maybe the slop hindered Known Agenda in the Remsen, while the shorter distance contributed to his off-the-board finish in the Sam F. Davis.

Just by studying the running line, notice all the ground he made up in the Sam F. Davis anyway. Even though he was only fifth at the end, he went from 13 lengths behind to 4 1/4 lengths as his best stride came late.

Then in the local optional claiming race last month, Known Agenda finally ran on fast dirt at nine furlongs again. He faces the same configuration.

Again, attempting to beat Greatest Honour as a bettor is not the greatest exercise as he keeps on winning. But with those mild speed figures and a poor pace scenario in front of him, 6-5 is a bit low on the favorite.

In Known Agenda, the race contains a horse who knows how to beat him and owns more early speed, especially with blinkers.

The final play is a win bet on Known Agenda and two exactas involving the two main horses above. The first one is Known Agenda over Greatest Honour, while the second is Greatest Honour over Known Agenda for less money as a backup.

Win: 5

Exacta: 5 / 7

Exacta (for a smaller amount): 7 / 5

Alternatively, bettors might want to take a braver stance and just play a Known Agenda over Greatest Honour exacta straight without any backup. Of course, both Known Agenda and Greatest Honour belong in multi-race wagers too.