Analysis: Play 2 Sunland Derby longshots with Mucho Gusto

Back in 2009, Mine That Bird showed the racing world that New Mexico's road to the Kentucky Derby is a viable one, as he shocked bettors with a 50-1 victory in the Run for the Roses. He won big despite missing the Top 3 in the Sunland Derby.  

Ten years later, New Mexico is still waiting for its next 3-year-old star to prevail at Churchill Downs, although Firing Line ran second to American Pharoah in 2015.

In Sunday's renewal of the Grade 3, $800,000 Sunland Derby, there is possibly a Top 5 horse in this division favored in Mucho Gusto, trained by Bob Baffert. He sits at 8-5 on the morning line but appears more likely to fall to even money or less when wagering begins.

This horse deserves low odds, as he stands out on class alone. In the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita, Mucho Gusto won by over four lengths in a field that included Sham Stakes (G3) winner Gunmetal Gray and the familiar Easy Shot.

Mucho Gusto also showed a new dimension in sitting off other horses.

Granted, it was a five-horse field. But the versatility shown is important, as TimeformUS' Pace Projector believes the Sunland Derby will offer a fast pace with Hustle Up and Diamond Blitz predicted to lead the field. Additionally, Anothertwistafate should join them up front, even though the Pace Projector does not agree with that assessment.

Last December, Mucho Gusto also finished second in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) to his stablemate Improbable, who still remains a highly regarded 3-year-old colt.

By setting the pace and putting away the sprinter Savagery, Mucho Gusto still did the early work. But, Improbable’s natural talent proved too much.

Improbable did not run again until the Rebel Stakes (G2) last week at Oaklawn and disappointed fans with a runner-up finish, but he also ran wide the entire time. Mucho Gusto's backers can only hope Improbable’s recent loss helps this horse’s odds.

Mucho Gusto needs to let the outside speed go on Sunday. He cannot get hooked into the pace with three different need-the-lead types entered here. If he stays patient in the initial stages, then the race is his to lose. He is the obvious top pick at low odds.

With only 14 Derby qualifying points in tow, the connections need a big race from Mucho Gusto. Baffert will tune him up to run his best.

Given the towering favorite, you can't blame a bettor for skipping this race, but there are two value horses to consider using underneath a keyed Mucho Gusto in an exacta or trifecta wheel.

The first one is not a surprising selection, but one unlikely to dip lower than fourth choice. His name is Cutting Humor, and he is listed on the morning line as 8-1.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Cutting Humor ran second two starts ago in a Gulfstream optional claimer to Bourbon War, who looks like a leigitmate Derby contender.

Cutting Humor then took a shot at some qualifying points in the Southwest Stakes (G3). After an early outside move that took him to third, he faded back to seventh.

He gets the benefit of the doubt, as visually, the Southwest pace looked like it collapsed after Jersey Agenda and Gray Attempt spared with one other aggressively early. The eventual winner Super Steed settled ninth in the opening quarter before circling the field with a big move.

Also note the third-place finisher Long Range Toddy, who came back to upset Improbable in the aforementioned Rebel Stakes last weekend.

Cutting Humor may not defeat Mucho Gusto in the Sunland Derby. However, he owns the credentials to out-kick the rest for second at a healthy price.

The other pick to finish underneath Mucho Gusto is less obvious: Walker Stalker. This New Mexico-bred gelding comes off a third-place finish in the Mine That Bird Derby at 45-1, four lengths behind Hustle Up after making a nice move on the turn.

Walker Stalker suffers from not switching leads in the stretch, but he did a lot of work throughout the race, never falling more than two lengths behind until the end.

With Anothertwistafate, Hustle Up and Diamond Blitz set to duel each other into oblivion, Walker Stalker could find himself ever farther back in the initial stages and stumble his way into second or third late on his wrong lead at generous odds.

Despite the New Mexico pedigree, Walker Stalker shows a strong bottom side with his second dam a half-sister to Discreet Cat, the 2006 UAE Derby (G2) and Cigar Mile Handicap (G1) winner. The talented runner won the first six races of his career.  

As for the synthetic El Camino Real Derby (G3) winner Anothertwistafate, not only is the pace against him in this spot, but his underneath family is comprised of turf runners.

Anothertwistafate’s second dam, Media Nox, made her first six starts on turf in Europe before taking the Buena Vista Handicap (G2) on turf to cap off her career.

Media Nox produced many foals besides Anothertwistafate’s dam Imprecation. One of Media Nox’s daughters was Nebraska Tornado, who also began her career in Europe. Her best win came in the 2003 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (G1).

For her 10th and final race, Nebraska Tornado gave dirt a shot in the 2004 Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Lone Star Park in Texas. She disappointingly faded to eighth at 7-1.

Obviously, Anothertwistafate’s sire Scat Daddy produced Triple Crown champion Justify. The top side is not everything when evaluating a horse’s bloodlines, though.

If Anothertwistafate wins or runs second, then hats off to him and those who back him at the windows. On paper, he looks like a play-against.

Because of Anothertwistafate’s presence, Hustle Up has almost no chance because he needs the lead as well, making him another toss at single-digit odds.

If Mucho Gusto cannot handle this group, then the Kentucky Derby will prove tough. Should he show the versatility displayed before, however, he will win. Assuming the heavy favorite is on top, the underneath horses must offer some value, making Cutting Humor and Walker Stalker the choices there.