Analysis: Play against these 7 Breeders' Cup horses

Picking horses to play against in the 2018 Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs on Nov. 2 and 3 comes down to one main factor: value. But the horse’s value is decided through three underlying factors in the horse’s record: class, pace and trip. Did the horse face quality competition? Did the circumstances help? The point is to outsmart the public.

Figuring out the true class of horses is important to this goal because these are extremely tough Grade 1 races when compared to most throughout the year. On a wider level, not every Grade 1 or Grade 2 is equal.

Because of the high level of these races, favoring horses who overcame adversity is preferable, too. Easy pace or trip horses can find the Breeders’ Cup a daunting task, as there is little room for error. If one quality runner folds, another will come running. 

Prep race winners will sometimes take money despite lack of adversity or competition, so this write-up will attempt to point out seven "Win and You're In" Challenge Series winners who look vulnerable and possibly overvalued by the public heading into the Breeders’ Cup.

Discreet Lover – Classic

In 1998, a 34-1 shot in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) named Wagon Limit settled last, several lengths off two powerhouse runners in Skip Away and Gentlemen.

The latter two horses dueled through grueling opening fractions of 23.64 and 46.45. For a 1 ¼-mile race over the slop, those are fast numbers. 

However, after opening up by an astonishing 10 lengths on the rest of the field, the pair began to crumble. Skip Away folded at the top of the stretch, while Gentlemen bravely kept fighting until the end. But the closer Wagon Limit rallied and eventually nailed him. 

Fast forward to the 2018 Jockey Club Gold Cup, with the longshot closer Discreet Lover settling several lengths off the big names Diversify and Mendelssohn.

Diversify folded in mid-stretch, while Mendelssohn kept fighting and Thunder Snow closed. Discreet Lover reserved the most energy, though, and because of the pace and his position farthest away, he mowed them all down with a steady stretch drive.

The popular late closer won his first Grade 1, as Wagon Limit did so many years ago. Yet, by the rules of pace handicapping, Mendelssohn ran the best race. 

Discreet Lover only took advantage of the pace, and by passing those horses and winning, it hurt his overall value too since the public likes winners.

While he remains an underneath option, Discreet Lover is a toss from the win spot.

Wow Cat – Distaff

This former South American champion makes the list because her numbers are low. She won the Beldame Stakes (G1), but despite the clear margin, Wow Cat only earned a 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 93 Beyer Speed Figure.

Furthermore, look at the other horses in the Beldame. Fillies and mares such as Divine Miss Grey, Verve’s Tale and Teresa Z would all start at double digits in the Distaff if they ran. There doesn't appear to be high quality in this supposed "Grade 1."  

When Wow Cat faced actual quality runners in Abel Tasman and Elate in the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga, she lost by 10 lengths. 

One of the owners talked about how it takes time for a horse like this to acclimate to North America. As seen in this Daily Racing Form article, Peter Brant said, “She’s been here six months, and we’ve found that’s when they usually start doing better.”

But the reality is, she has started in this country three times now and not shown herself capable of winning against better horses. Wait until she runs a legitimate Grade 1 race.

Vale Dori – Distaff

Given the recommendation of Zenyatta Stakes (G1) runner-up La Force in one of my earlier articles, Vale Dori might seem like an odd selection to toss out. 

The complexion of the race changed, however, and helped Vale Dori when Abel Tasman showed no interest in running at the break. This resulted in a relatively easy tempo. 

Because the favorite did not feel like running, the front-runners felt no heavy pressure. Vale Dori flanked the pacesetter Shenandoah Queen through a casual pace, and she struck at the right time on the turn over a speed-favoring track to barely win.

The connections deserve credit for persevering with Vale Dori, as it almost looked like retirement was inevitable after a few losses. But she got an easy trip up front, and from a pace standpoint, looks like a poor wagering option in a few weeks. 

If she goes to the front again, better horses will cook her.

Think about the horses slated to enter the Distaff, including the leading 3-year-old filly Monomoy Girl. How can Vale Dori survive a fast pace with quality horses such as Monomoy Girl if she can barely put away Shenandoah Queen for a desperate win? 

Bucchero – Turf Sprint 

Including Bucchero is a risk, but he earns a spot as a play against because of his perfect trip and win in the Woodford Stakes (G2). The victory hurt his already fragile value.

Bucchero found a dream spot in the initial stages, drafting inside behind the fast pace set by Rocket Heat and two others through an opening 21.80 seconds. According to TimeformUS, the 21.80 fraction equaled a high 156 Pace Figure.

On the turn, the fan favorite switched out for a clear run and mowed down Rocket Heat, who eventually folded back to sixth. But not surprisingly, Rocket Heat earned the high TimeformUS Speed Figure with a 123. So the pace favored Bucchero.

Because of Bucchero’s popularity and the fact he won his final prep race with an easy trip, he should offer no value in the win spot. If anything, consider underneath.

Knicks Go – Juvenile 

The shocking 70-1 Breeders’ Futurity (G1) winner ran a slow race, earning only a 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 81 Beyer Speed Figure. In all likelihood, he caught a questionable field full of horses who cannot route, which led to his upset victory. 

Once Knicks Go secured the lead on the first turn, the pace slowed down enough so he could conserve energy, and then he opened up again late.

While this longshot made for a nice story, repeating the win against horses such as expected Juvenile favorite Game Winner feels almost impossible. Also, because he won the Breeders’ Futurity by a clear margin, any possible value was eliminated.

If he goes off at 15-1 or less, is that a good deal even if the speed figures reveal him 15-20 lengths slower? The time to cash in on this runner is gone. 

Whitmore – Sprint (or Dirt Mile)

Unlike the other Breeders’ Cup contenders listed above, Whitmore failed to win his final prep when he could not pass Promises Fulfilled in the Phoenix Stakes (G2).

Before the loss, he won the Forego Stakes (G1), earning him an automatic spot in the Dirt Mile. On second look, the win at Saratoga is not that impressive.

Whitmore slipped through the rail in a dream run, while the runner-up City of Light went wide and took forever to switch leads.

Despite the easy trip, Whitmore failed to run faster than the 3-year-old Promises Fulfilled and 4-year-old filly Marley’s Freedom on the same card and at the same distance. As pointed out, Promises Fulfilled later backed this up in the Phoenix.

Whether Whitmore goes in the Sprint or Dirt Mile, he looks like a play-against in the top slot. He seems like a horse a touch below the best who can win with a lucky trip, and the Sprint and Dirt Mile will contain other talented stars besides Promises Fulfilled.

Like Discreet Lover, Whitmore works as an underneath type only.

Golden Mischief – Filly & Mare Sprint

Finally, here is one more Keeneland horse to pick on. Golden Mischief won the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (G2) by a head with only a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 94 Beyer Speed Figure -- average numbers for even a Grade 2. 

Only a little more than five lengths separated the winner and ninth-place finisher Torrent. As explained before, blanket finishes in dirt races indicate a slow race. 

If she runs, Golden Mischief will also need to face the aforementioned Marley’s Freedom and her fast stablemate Dream Tree, two powerful horses from the Bob Baffert barn. In addition, Mia Mischief, Selcourt, Separationofpowers and other runners are on the probables list as well, making Golden Mischief an easy toss from all slots.