Analysis: Picking the best Baffert colt in the Bob Hope

Short fields remain a problem on the Southern California circuit, and the Grade 3, $100,000 Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar on Sunday is no different.

Trainer Bob Baffert surrounds the Bob Hope for 2-year-old horses with three of the four entries. The lone opposition to his barn comes from trainer Richard Mandella, who only has one colt entered. Unless bettors think Mandella’s runner can prevail, this is not a great race to attack.

Regardless, here are some thoughts. 

Winning Map is the 7/5 favorite on the morning line. As with all these Baffert entries, he broke his maiden impressively at Santa Anita by 4 ¼ lengths. The runner-up Sir London also made his career debut for trainer Simon Callaghan and cost the connections $700,000 in May at a Fasig-Tipton sale. Winning Map probably beat a good horse. 

From watching Winning Map’s Nov. 8 workout in company with Kamui, he seems a bit headstrong. Kamui held a small advantage at the wire, but Winning Map had a strong hold on him throughout the far side.

Based on the workout, Winning Map likely wants the lead. Perhaps Mike Smith lets him go and he overpowers his stablemates plus Forbidden Kingdom for the win.

Messier won his second start to break his maiden at Santa Anita on Oct. 22 by 6 ½ lengths. He did not beat a strong field, as the runner-up Don’t Swear Dave had run a well-beaten fourth in Winning Map’s maiden win on Oct. 3.

From a visual standpoint though, Messier came off as an impressive winner who beat the maiden field with incredible ease. Often times, people exaggerate how easy a horse won because the jockey usually keeps encouraging the mount to widen the margin. In this case, Flavien Prat stood like a statue.

Messier looks like a possible monster. To add some caution though, he does need to navigate the rail draw and possibly take dirt in his face.

Kamui had crossed the wire second by half a length to Forbidden Kingdom in a local maiden race on Aug. 21. Forget about the speed figure, as August was a long time ago and 2-year-old horses develop rapidly.

In September, Kamui broke his maiden by six lengths at Los Alamitos. As a negative note on his opponents, the runner-up Marco Polo ran a distant second in a Churchill Downs maiden claimer on Nov. 4. Prior to the Churchill Downs effort, Marco Polo was fifth in Winning Map’s maiden race.  

Regardless, Kamui won easily enough to not discount his chances. In his third career start, a move forward is possible.

As for Forbidden Kingdom, he makes his return to dirt for Mandella after a fading third-place finish in the Speakeasy Stakes on turf at Santa Anita.

When Forbidden Kingdom broke his maiden on this course in August, he beat three Baffert runners in Kamui, Rhetoric and Portsmouth in fourth. On the return to dirt, maybe Forbidden Kingdom can build off his maiden effort and win over the three Baffert entries here. He is not likely to win, but it can happen based on his good career debut effort.

Bettors who believe in Forbidden Kingdom will get a decent price, as the three Baffert 2-year-olds figure to go off at lower odds than him.

Overall, this is not a race to get excited about from a betting standpoint. Rather, it is an exercise in patience to not attack every race.

If forced to choose entry out of the four, then Messier is the top selection. He beat nothing in his maiden win, but there is plenty of raw talent in him. Look for him to display that talent at short odds.