Analysis: Phat Man the value play in Harlan's Holiday Stakes

As connections seek to run good horses in warmer weather, Gulfstream Park becomes the center of racing around this time. On Saturday, the track hosts four graded stakes races, including the Grade 3, $100,000 Harlan’s Holiday Stakes, which acts as a prep race for the $3 million Pegasus World Cup next month.

From a value standpoint, the most interesting selection is Phat Man, who earns the nod because of his proven class and value.

Last December, Phat Man ran a closing second in the Harlan’s Holiday at 28-1 under Irad Ortiz Jr. He lost to War Story by 1 1/2 lengths, with another 1 1/2 lengths back to future Clark Stakes (G1) winner Bodexpress in third.

For the runner-up effort, Phat Man earned only a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. But he improved on that number in his next two starts.

In January, Phat Man took the Fred W. Hooper Stakes (G3) by one length with a 119 on TimeformUS. He beat 13 other runners in that race, including Eye of the Jedi in eighth. Eye of the Jedi is also entered in this race.

Then in February, Phat Man put up the best TimeformUS figure of his career when second in the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) to Mr Freeze, who was ultra-sharp back then. Phat Man lost by three lengths with a 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He also beat notable names in Hog Creek Hustle in third and True Timber in fourth. True Timber won the recent Cigar Mile (G1) at Aqueduct. 

Phat Man went on the shelf afterward and did not return until the Lafayette Stakes at Keeneland on the Breeders Cup undercard. While running wide throughout the race, he could manage only a mild move on the turn to reach contention at the top of the stretch before flattening to sixth late.

Because Phat Man came off a 252-day layoff, cross the Lafayette effort out. If anything, missing the board in that race helps the public ignore him.

Even though Phat Man figures to start at lower odds than 28-1 this time, he figures to offer value off the sixth-place finish.

Phat Man is the most bettable choice.

But if Tax runs to his 3-year-old form, he might prove tough to beat.

Tax ran second in the 2019 Wood Memorial Stakes (G2), before a dismal 15th in the Kentucky Derby and fourth in the Belmont Stakes.

After the Triple Crown season, Tax then won the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) over a closing Tacitus and Global Campaign in third with a 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure. One race later, Tax went on to finish a wide-trip seventh in the Travers Stakes (G1), but he ended the season with a strong second to Performer in the Discovery Stakes (G3) with a 126 on TimeformUS.

Tax’s good races as a 3-year-old gave hope for a strong 4-year-old season.

In Tax’s first start of the year, the public made him 4-1 against nice horses in the Pegasus World Cup, and he ran a dismal ninth, losing by 15 1/4 lengths. Tax then took a break for three months and came back in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) as a mild 12-1 long shot, fading to fifth.

After a 224-day break followed the Oaklawn effort, Tax returns here. But he could not start on the right foot in either of his comeback tries. 

Tax is usable in multi-race wagers in case Phat Man misfires. From a win bet perspective, though, watch his odds before accepting him on top. After all, why take a short price on a horse in bad form coming off a layoff? He needs to prove himself again as a horse worthy of short odds.

Is Tax playable as a win bet at 3-1 or higher? Maybe. At 2-1 or less, the public is overbetting him based on his better 3-year-old races.

Finally, Tatweej deserves consideration as a lightly raced 4-year-old colt on a three-race win streak for trainer Todd Pletcher. In his most recent start on Sept. 25, he took a local one-mile optional claimer by 3 3/4 lengths over the slop. He also won locally on fast dirt in his Aug. 22 win.

Tatweej’s figures do not appear fast. In the Sept. 25 race, he shows only a 112 on TimeformUS. In fairness, it was only his fourth career start.

His most useful asset is early speed. According to TimeformUS Pace Projector, Tatweej is probable to secure the lead through a slow pace. 

The question is whether he holds enough class to hold on against horses such as Tax and Phat Man, as an uncontested lead makes the pacesetter invincible only if the horse is approximately equal or better than the main contenders entered in the first place. Right now, Tatweej’s class is a question mark without stakes races, but he is still one to think about.

Based on proven class and value, Phat Man is the top choice, followed by Tax as a backup. Tatweej is useful as a B or C option if bettors can afford a third horse in multi-race wagers. In terms of a simple wager, if Phat Man starts at 6-1 or higher, then he is a good price for a win or place bet.