Pace Analysis: Offering a Lecomte longshot to watch
By Reinier Macatangay
Pace handicapping is a useful tool that allows the horseplayer to break down the flow of the race and find more value-orientated selections. It also allows players to figure out which horses ran deceptively well in their past starts.
This weekend, there are three major stakes races for 3-year-old horses on the 2018 Kentucky Derby trail. One of them stands out as intriguing from a pace perspective, and it is at Fair Grounds.
Luckily for bettors playing Fair Grounds this Saturday, the $200,000 Lecomte Stakes at 1 mile and 70 yards on dirt offers an expected lively pace. Because of the anticipated fast fractions, as indicated by the TimeformUS Pace Projector, Zing Zang becomes more interesting at 15-1.
Sired by Tapit, Zing Zang’s dam, Jet Away, is a daughter of Resort, who comes from the Phipps line of royally bred broodmares. This horse’s running style is reminiscent of the late-closing Creator, who went on to win the 2016 Belmont Stakes for the same Steve Asmussen barn.
The Pace Projector has five different horses, including Prince Lucky, Snapper Sinclair and Believe in Royalty, up front. Even if one or two defect from the pace, it should be a moderate tempo at its slowest.
It is possible one or both will overcome the bad post and endure any poor pace scenario looming. But what if they get carried wide on the first turn? Racing is not an exact science. Even good horses lose.
While Zing Zang’s top TimeformUS Speed Figure is only 98, with just three starts in tow, it is easy to envision him improving again. He owns the high late pace rating at 104, and will be running late.
As a final note, also consider Kowboy Karma. He lost an ungraded stakes event at Laurel Park, but had to chase down a slow pace where the leader got the half in 46 seconds for a six-furlong race. TimeformUS marked the middle fractions blue, signifying that is where the leader slowed it down.
Before the surprising loss, Kowboy Karma ran a decent fourth in the Champagne Stakes (GI) at Belmont Park. He finished on near-even terms with Enticed, who went on to win the Kentucky Jockey Club (GII). Plus, runner-up Good Magic took the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (GI).
Zing Zang is the preferred closer here, though. Instilled Regard and Principe Guilherme are the obvious top contenders with speed. And Kowboy Karma probably ranks fourth on this list.
Unfortunately, the $150,000 Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct does not appear interesting from a value or pace perspective.
In fact, expected heavy favorite Firenze Fire had a nice setup in his Champagne Stakes (GI) victory. TimeformUS does not label the fractions as fast, but the leaders went in 45 and change for the half in the one-mile race, and Firenze Fire simply swallowed them from behind turning for home.
Firenze Fire was not as fortunate as Good Magic in his next start, and lost by 20 lengths in the Breeders’ Cup. Was it the quirky racetrack? It is hard to tell. Most bettors will forgive the effort.
So why not go against the woefully low 3-5 Firenze Fire in this spot? He received a setup in his big win, right? There is just little here capable of taking him down, unless Firenze Fire lacks any fitness.
The other realistic possibility is Seven Trumpets, who makes his first one-mile start after two decent sprint efforts. His odds will be short, and it is only a guess that going longer will help.
Old Time Revival is also somewhat interesting, in that he comes off a four-length victory going seven furlongs at Laurel Park and his two summer races at five furlongs can be thrown out. He lacks class, but can improve enough to possibly hit the board. This is a tough race for bettors.
Monday Derby trail action continues at Oaklawn Park, where the track hosts the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes at one mile. Considering its ungraded status, the race attracted a nice field.
Mourinho puts on blinkers for the first time, and he looks good in this spot for trainer Bob Baffert. The loss in the Bob Hope S. (G3) can be excused because Greyvitos slipped away with an uncontested lead. Mourinho did well enough to keep up with him, and might set the pace here.
Navistar starts for Todd Pletcher, and he broke his maiden at Gulfstream in his second start. Back in October, he finished runner-up to the highly regarded Mask at Belmont Park, who went on to win the recent Mucho Macho Man Stakes with ease.
Combatant rounds out the list of serious contenders. The Asmussen-trained colt only finished a little more than two lengths behind Greyvitos at Remington Park. He will save ground from the rail, and can score the win with some luck and another step forward.
Alas, no crazy longshots for this race. One of the big three contenders should get the job done.