Saratoga 2022: Pace likely will be fast in Schuylerville Stakes

Predicting the pace in 2-year-old races is never easy because these horses are not yet established and could change their running styles without warning. At this point in their career, these babies are learning.

Nevertheless, there are three main speed fillies to watch for in the Grade 3, $175,000 Schuylerville Stakes on opening day at Saratoga.

From Post 3, the most likely pacesetter is the Mark Casse-trained Adora. She exits a 4 1/2-furlong maiden race at Woodbine, where she set a contested and fast pace, according to pace figures. According to TimeformUS, Adora posted pace figures of 113 and 90 for the first two fractions before a final 80.

How are 113 and 90 TimeformUS Pace Figures labeled fast? In past analysis on this blog, 130 and higher was the standard of fast when using this brand of figures. For 2-year-old synthetic races, the measure of what counts as fast is different. The fractions were 22.69 and 46.17, but these are just babies. Perhaps the track was playing slow as well.

Adora is the inside speed and figures to run faster fractions on dirt, assuming she handles the surface switch. She cost quite a bit at $450k.

From the outside, Summer Promise may contest the lead with Adora or set the pace if Adora ends up not handling the surface. In her career debut, Summer Promise secured an uncontested lead through slow fractions with pace figures of 81 and 90 according to TimeformUS.

Why is Summer Promise likely to go for the lead if she posted a slow pace? Sometimes horses work harder to secure the lead in a faster-paced situation, or they end up contesting the pace if there is company – even if they need to run faster to get into that position. Summer Promise had a one-length cushion on the lead.

In addition, trainer D. Wayne Lukas generally lets his horses fly. He also employs the services of jockey Luis Saez, who is an aggressive jockey.

According to TimeformUS Pace Projector, the third main speed horse is Me and My Shadow, who is Adora’s stablemate and also exits a synthetic win. But Me and My Shadow set a slow pace at Woodbine, assuming the 83 and 86 pace figures are accurate. Now she switches to dirt after that effort.

Me and My Shadow might revert to a stalker position by default. Instead, expect Vedareo to become eager to join the leaders from Post 4.         

Vedareo made her career debut at Parx Racing in a 4 1/2-furlong sprint. After initially beginning the race in fourth, she made a rush to the front and led by five lengths as the field rounded the turn. Interestingly, TimeformUS did not label the pace as slow, despite the 71 and 78 pace figures run by Vedareo.   

Given Vedareo is eager to hit the front, she figures to adjust to the Schuylerville pace and make a similar rush to the lead, or at least force both Adora and Summer Promise to run faster fractions to retain their positions.

Vedareo’s half-sister Vequist made the same move from Parx to Saratoga in 2020 and won the Spinaway Stakes (G1) after tracking the leader in second.        

Without predicting a winner yet, those are the three speed fillies likely to create a fast pace in the Schuylerville. Even if the pace ends up fast though, one of them could end up enduring the pace and overpowering the field.

Because each filly has started only once, there is possibly an undeveloped star in one of these runners, and at that point the pace might not matter. With that point in mind, it almost feels like a guess as to which filly wins.