Analysis: Owendale leads Oklahoma Derby's 'Big 3' horses

In many races, the two or three lowest-priced horses are obviously the best horses contenders, leaving no huge value options on top. The Grade 3, $300,000 Oklahoma Derby at Remington Park is a perfect example.

The shortest prices on the morning line are Mucho Gusto, Owendale and Tax. All three own successful experience against the best horses in this division, and each of them exits Saratoga's Travers Stakes (G1).

I believe one of them will find a way to win Sunday's featured race at Remington Park.

Out of those three, Owendale is slightly more intriguing because he ran on a dead rail for most of the Travers. Yet he still kept within striking distance.

Florent Geroux never had a real chance to tip out Owendale, who finished fifth by five lengths but deserves extra credit for the poor inside trip. He ran a lot better than it seems. 

As for proof of the dead rail, on the same card Shancelot faded to fourth as the odds-on favorite in the Allen Jerkens Stakes (G1). Also, Separationofpowers folded after setting moderate fractions in the Ballerina Stakes (G1), and Promises Fulfilled faded on the rail in the Forego Stakes (G1).

Before the Travers, Owendale won the Ohio Derby (G3) in a game performance that looks better than ever now. He out-dueled the future Pennsylvania Derby (G1) upsetter Math Wizard.

Three starts ago, Owendale also finished a close third in the Preakness Stakes, only 1 1/4 lengths behind War of Will. Some argued War of Will enjoyed a golden rail, while Owendale got the worst part of the track racing on the outside outside.

Furthermore, TimeformUS Pace Projector calls for a fast pace in Sunday's Oklahoma Derby with Long Range Toddy, Mucho Gusto, Tax and Sleepy Eyes Todd slated to show speed. Owendale owns the highest TimeformUS Late Speed Rating of 123.

Owendale gets the slight nod in this analysis, but Mucho Gusto also shows improvement in his past few starts.

As seen above, he contested the pace with Tacitus in the Travers before fading to third. He only lost by 3 ½ lengths after using himself up.

He also finished second to Maximum Security in the Haskell Invitational (G1).

In this one, Mucho Gusto ran wide and alongside the trio of pacesetters.

Once Maximum Security gained the lead, Mucho Gusto moved too and turned the stretch run into a battle, but he could not quicken enough.

Mucho Gusto only lost by 1 ¼ lengths to arguably the best 3-year-old. Compare Maximum Security to this weaker field.

Toss out Mucho Gusto's Derby trail efforts, as this is a changed horse, now relaxing rather than running all out early. Time has done him good. 

Next to discuss is Tax, who faded to seventh in the Travers after a wide trip. Considering the dead rail, though, his position was not the worst.

Two starts ago, Tax posted a mild upset in the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2), defeating a troubled Tacitus, Global Campaign and War of Will.

In this race, Tax initially broke on top. He then let War of Will take over the lead entering the backstretch and fell two lengths behind.

But once War of Will folded, Tax came back and secured the lead. At the top of the stretch, Tax repelled Global Campaign and held off Tacitus by ¾ of a length. It is notable Tacitus raced on another dead rail. 

Tax also ran well in the Belmont Stakes, fading to fourth by 2 ¾ lengths after contesting the pace alongside Joevia.

Toss out Tax's Kentucky Derby run, where he finished 15th by 15 lengths. For most horses, that race is an odd outlier, and the sloppy conditions this year only reinforce that.

As for options underneath, Bankit is an obvious choice because of his closing style and proven form at nine furlongs. Recently, he finished second in the Albany Stakes at Saratoga to Funny Guy at the same distance.

Funny Guy is entered in this race, too, and it is impressive he won at nine furlongs in his first start over the distance.

Bankit and Funny Guy are right behind the big three on the morning line.

For a more proper longshot at 15-1, Chess Chief looks interesting, if only because Dallas Stewart trains. He usually finds a way to hit the superfecta.

Chess Chief's form is not terrible. Although he finished eighth in the Travers, he ran second in the West Virginia Derby (G3) at 35-1. Also, he completed the superfecta in the Indiana Derby (G3) at 46-1.

In terms of the win spot though, the three most well-known names are standouts for a reason. It is unlikely Owendale, Mucho Gusto and Tax could all fail.

Each deserve the A spot designation. If one must be demoted, then Tax could take up the B spot instead, with Owendale and Mucho Gusto on top.

If Owendale switches spots with Tax on the board and drifts to 4-1, he works as a win bet as well. He is in a good spot to win again.