Analysis: Ollie's Candy tough to analyze in Ogden Phipps Stakes

For bettors, the 5-year-old Ollie’s Candy looks like a difficult mare to ignore or trust alone in the Grade 1, $300,000 Ogden Phipps Stakes at Belmont on Saturday. She makes her third start of the year, two months after a career-best effort at Oaklawn.

Here is the dilemma. Is Ollie’s Candy’s courageous second in the Apple Blossom Stakes (G1) after setting a fast pace a sign of future success, or is the effort an outlier? She also faces more speed types in this spot.

But as shown below, Ollie’s Candy can withstand heat.

Rather than risk letting Serengeti Empress secure the front early in the Apple Blossom, jockey Joel Rosario urged Ollie’s Candy out of the gate.

Cookie Dough provided the screen and blocked Serengeti Empress from crossing over, allowing Ollie’s Candy some breathing room on the inside. Cookie Dough then briefly led them through the opening quarter in a quick 22.20, with Ollie’s Candy right there in second and Serengeti Empress chasing a length behind in third.

As they approached the half-mile, Cookie Dough backed down slightly from the contested pace and Ollie’s Candy led through a blazing 45.51.

Going into the far turn, Ollie’s Candy turned up the heat and tried to open up, while hitting six furlongs in 1:10.27. At this point, she looked strong and ready to give more in the stretch. Cookie Dough had folded, and Serengeti Empress appeared lost without the lead. Come Dancing moved up slightly on the inside, but her rally began to stall as well.

Ce Ce began to range up past the fading horses, reaching second at the top of the stretch. She then took aim at Ollie’s Candy. But the surprising part is that Ollie’s Candy initially fought back and almost held Ce Ce off.

Ce Ce prevailed by a head, but arguably lost something in the effort in order to pick up the win. She traveled back home to Santa Anita and returned to finish a lifeless third in the Santa Maria Stakes (G2).

In most cases, surviving a fast pace is a good sign. However, there is also a chance that Ollie’s Candy regresses off the race and “bounces” back to a dull performance. She faces another need-the-lead type in this race named Blamed, who is the probable pacesetter. She’s a Julie might also find herself in the mix after a poor break hampered her speed last time.

Then again, Ollie’s Candy could repeat the Oaklawn effort and win.  

With all those points in mind, bettors must respect Ollie’s Candy in multi-race wagers. She is not invincible, but she deserves respect.

If Ollie’s Candy fails to fire or folds, Point of Honor is capable of taking advantage. On paper, she is the classiest closer in the race.  

Unlike Ollie’s Candy, Point of Honor lagged at the back and 23 lengths behind the leader in the opening quarter of the Apple Blossom.

Approaching the far turn, Point of Honor began to make up ground. She went outside away from traffic and took aim at the top of the stretch, closing well enough to pick up third and only lose by 2 1/4 lengths.

Given Point of Honor fell back 20+ lengths behind in the initial quarter, she gave a great closing effort to close the gap.

Point of Honor needs to show more speed though and benefit from a pace setup again. Those two scenarios might happen.

Javier Castellano is good at judging pace, which means Point of Honor is probable to sit closer than 20 lengths back. Plus, the chance of a fast pace is high with Ollie’s Candy, Blamed and She’s a Julie present.

For a third option, also consider Pink Sands.

Pink Sands runs as a deep closer in sprints. In this one-turn route, she is going to settle a bit closer, which could either help or flatten her out.

Regardless, Pink Sands did well to capture the seven-furlong Inside Information Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream back in January, winning by three lengths after taking advantage of a pace setup. Some of the notable names included Spiced Perfection, who ran fourth, and Blamed, who folded to 11th and last after contesting the lead.

Pink Sands also mowed down the field in the one-mile Rampart Stakes (G3) back in December, winning by half a length over Cookie Dough.

The 1 1/16-mile distance might hamper the late run just a little bit. Nevertheless, she deserves consideration in case the pace sets up.

Now to discuss the rest of the field.

As noted above, She’s a Julie eliminated herself with a poor start in the Shawnee Stakes at Churchill Downs. But this mare is on a disappointing five-race losing streak and likely closer to retirement than winning.

Blamed wants the lead. She will not get an easy time up front with She’s a Julie and Ollie’s Candy. One of them will pressure Blamed.

Golden Award shows an exceptional pedigree as a half-sister to 2012 Kentucky Derby champion I’ll Have Another. As a racehorse, she seems average.

From a vertical wager standpoint, the Ogden Phipps is a difficult race to attack. In multi-race wagers, Ollie’s Candy and Point of Honor are the two horses to focus on. If there is room in the budget for a third horse, then toss in Pink Sands. Ollie's Candy is respect, but not a lock to win.