Analysis: Oleksandra still the one to beat in Wishing Well
Oleksandra meets eager fillies in the $75,000 Wishing Well Stakes at Santa Anita today as she seeks to re-establish herself as a top female turf sprinter.
Bettors sticking with the favorite will receive a powerful closer, but the odds figure to fall lower than 9-5 on this 7-year-old mare despite not hitting the board lately. Is she worth swallowing less than the morning line odds?
Yes. But the answer comes with reservations.
Oleksandra’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint effort is not a good one. After tipping out for the stretch run, she passes only a few horses late.
What happened?
Wet Your Whistle does force Oleksandra in slightly into the middle paths, but only because Oleksandra cannot outkick him despite getting a head start to the outside position. For what it is worth, Wet Your Whistle motors home to a strong runner-up finish, eliminating any idea of a slow pace or poor outside footing hampering Oleksandra.
In her next start, Oleksandra dumps jockey Joel Rosario in the local Las Cienegas Stakes (G3) last month after getting bothered at the start.
Yet Oleksandra’s past races are too respectable to pass on her. She took the Jaipur Stakes (G1) at Belmont against males and ran second in the local Monrovia Stakes (G2) to Jolie Olimpica, losing by only half a length after a lightning move late.
In 2019, Oleksandra also won the Franklin County Stakes (G3) at Keeneland by two lengths over Morticia and Girls Know Best.
Oleksandra does not face a strong field in the Wishing Well. Even if she regresses slightly off her best form because of older age or other reasons, she is capable of defeating this group at 90 percent.
On this blog, she gets one more chance.
If Oleksandra falls to crazy low odds, then consider Lighthouse.
Lighthouse crossed the wire third in the Las Cienegas. But she became disqualified to fifth for coming out and bothering Superstition, who then bothered Oleksandra.
Disqualification aside, Lighthouse performed well enough to believe she can move forward. The only nitpick about the effort is how she lets Jolie Olimpica pass her late for second, although handicappers can forgive her surrender of the runner-up spot given Jolie Olimpica’s obvious class.
Last year, Lighthouse won two races in four starts, including the $400,000 Music City Stakes at Kentucky Downs by 1 1/2 lengths to cap off a solid season. In the races Lighthouse did not win, she was second by a neck in the Daisycutter Handicap at Del Mar and second by 3/4 of a length in the local Sweet Life Stakes (G3). She is consistent, but is she faster than Oleksandra?
If Oleksandra brings her A game, Lighthouse probably cannot win.
For bettors who think the favorite is off form or aging at 7 years old, Lighthouse is a young alternative who might develop into one of the better female turf sprinters with more time.
Superstition also has a chance in this race.
The main concern with Superstition is the 6 1/2-furlong distance, which might prove too far after she faded and lost by seven lengths in the six-furlong Las Cienegas. Prior to that, she had not run past 5 1/2 furlongs.
On the plus side, Superstition draws well outside the other speed. Flavien Prat can watch how the other runners break before deciding where to position himself. If Superstition finds a way to reserve energy and strike at the right moment, she can win. She needs Oleksandra and Lighthouse to misfire too.
In all likelihood, Oleksandra gets back on track and gives an effort close to her better races, which will result in a win. This is a classy mare who faces a moderate group. Plus, regular rider Joel Rosario remains on board and keeps the faith after getting dumped by the mare last time.
Oleksandra is the top choice at even money or higher, and possibly even a single candidate for cheaper Pick 4 tickets.
If those odds fall lower than even money, then give Lighthouse or Superstition closer inspection and consider them for Win and Place bets.