Analysis: Noble Indy's early pace work shines in Louisiana Derby
When
it comes to the 2018 Kentucky Derby, the final quarter or eighth of a mile in contenders' previous
races is dissected to the max. Everyone wants to find the true 10-furlong
runner, so logic gravitates towards how the horse closed.
Because the field appeared to finish slow, the natural reaction is “none of
these horses will be competitive at Churchill Downs.”
Is 12.99 slow? What matters in this case is people think Noble Indy
came home slow. He is already being discounted because of the overrated
practice of emphasizing only the final part of the race. How pace affects the final time is completely disregarded in these discussions.
Remember this: If the pace is fast, it makes no sense to expect
horses to close strongly because they expend too much energy dueling up front. Likewise, if horses
start slow, assuming there are good runners in the race they should fly late.
The latter scenario happens more
often in turf racing. But there is nothing necessarily wrong with the former scenario.
Hard running still occurs. It just happens in the front stages of the race, and
logically the pace horse who survives turns in a quality effort.
The surviving pace horse gets a handicapping upgrade because he worked in all
stages of the race, while the closers took advantage of tired horses.
Did Noble Indy run hard in all stages of the race?
TimeformUS shows longshot Marmello snapping off early pace figures of 143 and
140 (marked as red), and Noble Indy chased him not more than a length
behind.
While Noble Indy pushed a longshot maiden who had no business in the race, he
still ran a quick pace to retain the early position.
As evidence, look at where all the other pace horses finished. Marmello came
home last, while Risen Star winner Bravazo faded to eighth. Snapper Sinclair and Retirement Fund finished fifth and seventh, respectively.
Noble Indy slowed down, but think about the work he put in early. Afterward, he needed to fight off Lone Sailor, who briefly led in mid-stretch, and My Boy Jack, who went wide but made an admittedly stirring move on the far turn.
Somehow, Noble Indy kept them at bay and won. He did this after getting
softened up putting away the other speed. That is a lot of
hard work.
Ask this question: Is a speed horse who withstood a fast pace or one who
received soft fractions more prepared for the Kentucky Derby?
The one who endured the pace is already used to the scenario.
Also, because of the points qualifying system, the race is arguably becoming easier for
speed horses. Last year, Always Dreaming pressed the leader and won. In 2016,
Nyquist chased in second and won. In 2015 and 2014, American Pharoah and
California Chrome ran the same wide trip in third or fourth.
A late runner has not won the Kentucky Derby since Orb in 2013.
Always Dreaming turned in pace figures of 149 and 141 in last year’s edition,
so the Derby pace is still fast, even though it has tapered off slightly in
recent years. But it is no longer unmanageable by quality horses up front.
Horses who ran a fast pace last time are in an even better position heading into the Derby with the points system. No longer must they deal with sprinters that carry no hope of doing more than muddling the pace.
For a recent Derby example of how a horse who ran a fast early pace, followed by a slow come-home time in the final prep, fared well at Churchill. Look at Battle of Midway from last
year. Nearly everyone criticized the Santa Anita Derby (G1) for being too slow.
However, the race was not slow in the beginning. Battle of Midway sparred in an
insane three-way speed duel along with Royal Mo and American Anthem. Somehow,
Battle of Midway and Royal Mo survived the pace war.
Equibase lists the final eighth as 13.61 seconds, well above the 12.99 from the
Louisiana Derby this year. If Noble Indy came home slow, then Battle of Midway
was a tortoise.
Subsequently, the public ignored Battle of Midway in the Kentucky Derby at
40-1, and he helped blow up the trifecta by finishing third. His early Santa
Anita Derby duel gave him the right foundation to handle the pace.
In addition, think about all the horses who fade in the Derby and run well
three weeks later in the Belmont Stakes (G1). Irish War Cry is an example.
The Derby speed horses endure a hard pace, even if
the event is not as fast as before, and end up gaining something for their next start.
This angle does not just apply to the Derby-Belmont double. The exact logic can be used for any race. Enduring a hard pace is beneficial to
lasting longer next time. It serves as a tough workout.
None of this means Noble Indy is a mortal lock to win the first leg of the
Triple Crown. He still needs one more step up to defeat runners such as
West Coast stalwarts McKinzie and Bolt d’Oro. This evidence is only meant to show he ran a
quality race at Fair Grounds, and that this “last quarter/eighth” emphasis that runs rampant during Derby season is
not always so important.