Analysis: Tribhuvan faces no real pace threat in United Nations

Keeping in line with the topic of loose-lead pacesetters on this blog, Tribhuvan is a long-distance turf runner who needs the lead to himself. The gelded son of Toronado faces no real threat to securing the lead in the Grade 1, $600,000 United Nations Stakes at Monmouth Park on Saturday.

Despite the presence of other speed horses, Tribhuvan is supposed to outfoot them to the lead as the lone true pacesetter in the race. 

Oddly enough, TimeformUS Pace Projector does not show Tribhuvan as the pacesetter. The honor supposedly belongs to Carpenters Call, who makes his Grade 1 debut after winning a Presque Isle Downs optional claimer in June.

Look at Carpenters Call’s early position in the Presque Isle run. He ran as a stalker in third through the earlier stages before taking over on the far turn for his dominating 5 1/2-length win. Two starts ago in the Cliff Hanger Stakes at Monmouth, Carpenters Call also settled in third before fading to sixth.

Carpenters Call set the pace to break his maiden at Tampa Bay Downs and win an optional claimer in February, but in each case he set moderate to slow fractions.

Listed as second on the Pace Projector graphic is Epic Bromance, and he is questionable as a pacesetter as well.

In his most recent start, Epic Bromance set the pace uncontested in the local Monmouth Stakes (G3) with a one or two-length cushion throughout the race before fading to third.

Before the Monmouth, Epic Bromance used mostly stalking tactics. In the Tampa Bay Stakes (G3) in February, Epic Bromance stalked the pace before folding to last. In the Knickerbocker Stakes (G3) at Belmont last October, Epic Bromance tracked the leader early before folding to last.

Epic Bromance also competed in last year’s United Nations and stalked the pace in third as Tribhuvan set the pace uncontested and won. Surprisingly, Epic Bromance finished third at 61-1 odds and lost by only three lengths.

The point is that Carpenters Call and Epic Bromance normally use other tactics besides setting the pace, and Tribhuvan makes a living out of it. Even if Carpenters Call or Epic Bromance went for the lead on Saturday, Tribhuvan normally runs too fast for their kind of speed to matter.

As stated earlier, Tribhuvan set the pace in last year’s United Nations and led by five lengths in the opening half-mile. Can any other horse in this race keep up with Tribhuvan in the United Nations if he tries to separate in that fashion early? They would need to commit pace suicide in the opening half.

The fractions might seem slow, but he was moving at a good pace.

Following the United Nations win, Tribhuvan contested the lead and faded off the board in the Sword Dancer Stakes (G1) at Saratoga and set the pace and faded in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

After a layoff, Tribhuvan set the pace and faded off the board in the Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs on the Kentucky Derby undercard. Last month at Belmont, though, Tribhuvan captured the Manhattan Stakes (G1) by 3 1/2 lengths after leading by seven lengths at one point.

With the recent Manhattan win, Tribhuvan enters in good form and faces familiar foes in the runner-up Adhamo and third-place Gufo again.

Given there is no real threat to Tribhuvan’s early speed, the stage is set for Tribhuvan to turn in another great effort. Although the time to play against Tribhuvan will come soon, this is probably not the spot to try that. He should secure the lead and take them a long way again.