Analysis: Nashville likely to lead Charlatan in Malibu pace

For value bettors, the Grade 1, $300,000 Malibu Stakes for 3-year-olds on the traditional Santa Anita opening day card is a difficult one. The Saturday race contains two superstars in Nashville and Charlatan, and this is one of those cases where both horses deserve to attract a lot of attention at the windows.

Nevertheless, the race does provide an opportunity to study the two stars and learn how to differentiate between pacesetters rather than lump them as the same kinds of horses style-wise.

As seen through their running lines, Nashville and Charlatan both love to set the pace. Each of them show nothing but 1s in three starts. But Nashville is more likely to set the pace in the seven-furlong Malibu because he is a true sprinter who knows how to open up early on. The pace figures back him up. 

In three starts, Nashville set the pace uncontested and won three times. For the second start at six furlongs on Keenland fast dirt, Nashville set 22.18 and 45.06 opening fractions.

Then, in his most recent effort in the six-furlong Perryville Stakes on the Breeders’ Cup undercard, Nashville set blazing 21.54 and 43.87 fractions.

For Nashville’s outstanding effort in the Perryville, he earned TimeformUS Pace Figures of 149 and 142. At the point of the 43.87 half-mile and accompanying 142 pace figure, Nashville opened up by an impressive six lengths. TimeformUS chose to mark the half-mile in red.

Visually, it is easy to see how Nashville speeds up after the initial quarter.

He creates a significant amount of separation against sprinters.

In a route race, opening up by six lengths is easier because the field is running at a slower pace. For example, typical opening fractions for a one-mile route might consist of 23.45 and 47.31. If one horse wants to turn on his motors and open up by several lengths in the second quarter, he needs to run a only 46 half-mile instead of 47 and change. 

But in a six-furlong sprint, owning the speed to go in 43 and change instead of the typical 44 or 45 at the half-mile requires talent because it is a sprint pace. The entire field is already running at a fast clip, relative to routers at least. 

In contrast, Charlatan shows only one sprint race on his record. He broke his maiden in a six-furlong sprint at Santa Anita before winning a one-mile optional claimer and traveling to Arkansas to cross the wire first in the Arkansas Derby (G1).

Focusing on the maiden sprint race, Charlatan set moderately fast fractions of 21.89 and 44.72, resulting in 119 and 120 pace figures on TimeformUS.

Those raw fractions appear faster than Nashville’s 22.18 and 45.06 in his second start, an allowance sprint at Keeneland, but TimeformUS gave Nashville 131 and 131 pace figures for those opening numbers. The two 131s are notably faster than the 119 and 120 by Charlatan in his lone sprint. 

Why is it possible for slower raw fractions to result in higher pace figures than a horse with faster fractions at another racetrack? TimeformUS must assume that Keeneland dirt plays slower than Santa Anita, making those 22.18 and 45.06 fractions more laborious than they initially appear.

From a visual standpoint in Charlatan’s maiden win, he did not open up until the stretch run. At least two horses kept close company on him.

Comparing Charlatan’s two route efforts to Nashville’s sprints is more difficult, but it is notable that he mostly waits until the stretch run to pour on the margins. In his March 14 start in a one-mile optional claimer, Charlatan went from leading by three lengths at the half-mile to six lengths at the top of the stretch, and then 10 1/4 lengths at the end.

Charlatan could adjust to the Malibu pace and attempt to match strides with Nashville's blazing speed. But he will need to work extremely hard.

To put this in plainer terms, Nashville is the most likely pacesetter in the Malibu, even though Charlatan has known nothing but setting the pace in his three races. Nashville knows how to break the race open through a sprint pace, while Charlatan is more used to route distances by now and waits until the stretch to put his best foot forward anyway.

The difference is large enough that TimeformUS Pace Projector thinks Nashville opens up on an uncontested lead early on, with Charlatan alone in second. Does that mean Charlatan cannot win because of Nashville’s early advantage? No. For one, Mike Smith could ask Charlatan aggressively out of the gate to adjust.

Recognizing the difference between Nashville and Charlatan helps to analyze and find value in other races. The majority of handicappers lump early speed types together if they see 1s or 2s in their running lines. But studying the subtle differences between those horses can give the bettor a unique outlook on the race.

As for whether Nashville or Charlatan wins the Malibu, the low odds on both of them makes it a moot point for value players. This is the kind of race for bettors to watch as enthusiastic fans rather than for hardcore horseplayers to break out their life savings.