Analysis: Baffert juvenile the top choice in Bob Hope Stakes
As expected for a 2-year-old stakes race at Del Mar, the Grade 3, $100,000 Bob Hope Stakes features a promising Bob Baffert-trained runners in Mucho Gusto. The Hall of Fame conditioner was expected to have a second runner in Metropol, but the colt will miss Saturday's race due to an elevated temperature.
The power duo recently broke their maidens at Santa Anita and Los Alamitos, respectively, and despite their lack of experience, the public figures to bet both horses.
On paper, the latter colt deserved more attention anyway because of the smooth fashion with which won his debut race and the outstanding pedigree. While stablemate Metropol would have eaten money, 8 ¾-length maiden winner Extra Hope will prove popular at the windows too, possibly giving Mucho Gusto backers a small break.
That is an optimistic view of Mucho Gusto’s value.
In any case, Mucho Gusto broke his maiden on Sept. 20 by four lengths, and the appeal comes from watching the impressive stretch run with Joe Talamo aboard. Talamo never used the whip and only gave a vigorous hand ride, like he knew the outcome even when the other horses came within range. The horse had a lot left.
Even though the Bob Hope is a seven-furlong race, Mucho Gusto’s routing pedigree is notable because he broke his maiden in a six-furlong race effortlessly.
Mucho Gusto’s sire, Mucho Macho Man, won several graded dirt routes in his career, with his main highlight coming in the 2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita. Underneath, Mucho Gusto shows several route influences as well, as the second dam Countervail is a half to notable stakes routers Alternate and Peaks and Valleys.
Yet, Mucho Gusto seemed to enjoy six furlongs. How much can he improve in a longer race, even if only by one furlong? A more proper distance should help at least a little.
While Mucho Gusto only earned a 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure at lowly Los Alamitos, the other factors help make him the top pick here.
What happened? Mandella added blinkers for the big Oct. 21 performance, and that seemed to encourage more early speed and a focused late kick from him. TimeformUS awarded a 106 for the effort, which ties for the highest speed figure from a Bob Hope Stakes contender.
In Extra Hope’s first three races, he recorded declining TimeformUS numbers of 89, 87 and 86. If the blinkers helped, however, then bettors can discount those races.
Savagery and Sparky Ville are the next two horses to discuss. Neither of them are strong win contenders, but if something strange happens one of them can take advantage. Sparky Ville recently won the Sunny Slope Stakes over Savagery.
The replay below will show Savagery accomplished most of the work, dueling with Seven Scents on the inside before ultimately putting him away in the stretch run.
Sparky Ville settled into a dream position stalking them a few lengths away, and when Savagery became tired from the early pace, Sparky Ville passed him on the outside.
Savagery previously broke his maiden in a claiming race, bringing his class into question. My feeling is, Savagery and Sparky Ville are not likely Kentucky Derby contenders going into next year, while Mucho Gusto, Metropol and Extra Hope hold that potential. With that said, Savagery earned a 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the Sunny Slope win, the same exact number Extra Hope scored in his maiden win.
For the wrong reasons, Owning gets a mention in this analysis. Since his good maiden win at Los Alamitos in July when he earned a 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure, he has gone backward in two subsequent races with a 94 and 82. He lost by more than 13 lengths to Instagrand in the Best Pal Stakes (G2), and by more than seven lengths in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf. The wheels are rapidly falling off this April $260,000 purchase.
The connections gave Owning some rest after the turf flop, and this son of Flashback is still young. Maybe his form can still turn around into the right direction.
For now, though, he is a toss from the win spot.
Sueno completes the field, and he won a maiden claiming race with an 82 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That will not cut it here.
Mucho Gusto is listed as the 5-2 favorite on the morning line. If he holds at that spot, it is fair enough given the reasons listed above. Extra Hope is no pushover, while and Savagery and Sparky Ville can upset with some luck.
For horizontal players, those are the A, B and C horses in that order.