Analysis: Mrs. Danvers the pedigree play in Comely Stakes

This week’s set of race analyses hopes to match last Saturday's six plays, which gave away three winners from six races, including North Dakota at $19.40 in the Red Smith Stakes (G3) and Wow Brown at $9.00 as well. 

The main focus of the Grade 3, $100,000 Comely Stakes analysis below is Mrs. Danvers, who is related to North Dakota through her dam, Gracie Square. The nine-furlong dirt race for 3-year-old fillies headlines the Friday card at Aqueduct.  

Here is a rundown of Mrs. Danvers' pedigree.

On the sire side, Mrs. Danvers is the daughter of the well-known Tapit, who is proficient in siring horses with stamina.

As for the dam Gracie Square on the bottom half, she is an Awesome Again half-sister to the popular sire War Front, as well as Teammate and North Dakota, the winner of the 1 3/8-mile Red Smith on Aqueduct’s turf course.

Awesome Again took the 1998 Breeders’ Cup Classic, and his progeny generally excel in route races. For those not familiar with Teammate, she won the nine-furlong Bonnie Miss Stakes (G2) in 2006 and ran second in the 1 1/4-mile Alabama Stakes (G1) and Gazelle Stakes (G1).

Therefore, Mrs. Danvers is loaded with stamina influences on top and bottom, making the stretch to nine furlongs less of a problem on paper. 

From a racing standpoint, Mrs. Danvers gives the impression of a steady and consistent competitor, although not explosive. Remember, though, that all seven career starts came at one mile or less and she could move forward at nine furlongs.

Toss out the Test Stakes (G1) flop three starts ago. The controversial filly Gamine won by an impressive seven lengths and fractured the field.

Two starts ago, Mrs. Danvers ran a strong second to Thankful in a Sept. 27 Belmont allowance race. On the turn, Mrs. Danvers tries to tip out on the turn for an ideal strike, Critical Value blocks Mrs. Danvers and prevents her from getting outside of Thankful. Because of the screen, Mrs. Danvers had to rally on the inside instead and almost got the job done, but Thankful manages to hold on by a neck. 

Mrs. Danvers shows a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the runner-up effort, which is a number competitive against this field. If she improves on that figure and comes close to 120, then she probably wins. With her pedigree, stretching out to nine furlongs can help this filly get there.

The only criticism against Mrs. Danvers is that she runs slightly rank in some of her races. Despite the habit, the connections opt to keep the blinkers on, when she probably does not need them in this situation. 

Based on pedigree and consistent form, though, she is the top choice.   

Thankful also ran a 113 on TimeformUS in that Belmont allowance.

After pressing the pacesetter in second, she took over on the turn and held on. As explained above, she did become lucky when Mrs. Danvers had trouble tipping out in the stretch. But she also fought back when Mrs. Danvers found room by shifting back to the inside and holding on late.

Thankful also broke her maiden in a nine-furlong Saratoga race, making her a proven commodity at this distance.

For one last positive, Thankful owns useful tactical speed as well. She is capable of pressing, as she did on Sept. 27, but she can settle into a stalking position as well if the pace with Miss Marissa and Gale heats up.

Watch the board for more clues on this Todd Pletcher-trained runner. If she ends up at higher odds than Mrs. Danvers, that is value. At a minimum, she deserves a spot alongside Mrs. Danvers in horizontals.

Those are the two choices, with Mrs. Danvers the top option.

Miss Marissa is entered in this field too and figures to attract money as a graded stakes winner. Blog followers might remember this filly as the top choice in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2), which she won at 10-1.

But the pace setup for Miss Marissa is different this time. She runs better when able to use her speed freely, but this race offers other quality pacesetting speed in Gale, who stretches out from one mile to nine furlongs after an impressive 13 1/2-length gate-to-wire win at Laurel Park with a 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Gale is not likely to rate here. 

If Gale scratches, then give Miss Marissa serious consideration.

Otherwise, Miss Marissa looks too pace-compromised in this race to trust her again with a pacesetting win. Last time felt like the right time. 

At 3-1 or higher, perhaps the vertical play is a Win bet on Mrs. Danvers and an Exacta Box with Mrs. Danvers and Thankful.

If Mrs. Danvers falls below 3-1, then just use the two of them horizontally and find another race to attack separately from multi-race wagers. Remember to throw in Miss Marissa only if Gale scratches and softens up the front.