Analysis: Montauk Traffic offers best Gotham Stakes value

On paper, the Grade 3, $300,000 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct is far from the most telling prep race for the 2020 Kentucky Derby given the one-turn mile configuration this late in the season. Most of the horses entered look like true milers in the long run.

For bettors, though, this is a nice race with 11 entries led by deserving favorite Mischevious Alex, who won the Swale Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream by 7 ¼ lengths and the Parx Juvenile Stakes by 9 ¾ lengths. In both cases he earned a 116 figure on TimeformUS, with the latter effort giving him the high last-race number.

It goes without saying that Mischevious Alex deserves top billing. He is listed as 3-1, and it's unclear if that will hold.

There are three horses, however, with a chance to beat him: Untitled, Attachment Rate and Montauk Traffic. Given the third name lacks high figures and won his races locally, he is likely to off at higher odds.

But Montauk Traffic possesses potential for moving forward.

His first race a throwout after losing by 48 ¼ lengths. In Montauk Traffic's second start, he improved when switching from Laurel to Aqueduct in a Dec. 28 maiden event. This time he showed enough speed to settle in mid-pack and inside. He looked primed and ready to move on the turn, but a wall of horses momentarily blocked his momentum.

Finally, jockey Jose Lezcano guided him toward the rail at the top of the stretch. From there, Montauk Traffic strided out beautifully and won by 4 ½ lengths.

Trainer Linda Rice then entered him in the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes. Again, Montauk Traffic settled in mid-pack as Secret Rules and Johnny Ritt dueled.

On the far turn, Montauk Traffic inched forward. But interestingly enough, Lezcano chose to let other horses pass him on the outside first.

At top of the stretch, Montauk Traffic found room to maneuver inside. He then tipped outside of Secret Rules and Johnny Ritt and passed them under mild urging. The only knock is that Montauk Traffic did not switch leads, but that is forgivable given he properly did so two starts ago.

Montauk Traffic won with a mild 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure. In his two previous starts, he earned a 90 in his maiden win and 24 at Laurel.

This is a talented horse moving in the right direction. If his 6-1 odds hold, he deserves a look at a higher price than Untitled or Attachment Rate.

As for Attachment Rate, he broke his maiden 6 ¼ lengths in the Gulfstream slop after initially sitting eight lengths behind a supersonic pace. Notice the run-off pacesetter Bychance set a whopping 192 pace figure on TimeformUS in the opening quarter. To put that number in perspective, an early pace figure of 150 is considered fast, which means a 192 is extraordinary.

Granted, Attachment Rate cut into that fast pace early, moving 3 ½ lengths behind Bychance after the half-mile along with the second choice Rag Tag. Attachment Rate also deserves credit for sustaining the move in the stretch.

However, Attachment Rate only received a final figure of 103 on TimeformUS, which is also low compared to Mischevious Alex.

The value remains questionable on Attachment Rate, too, as the public will see he finished second to the hyped Todd Pletcher-trained colt Market Analysis two starts ago. Attachment Rate only lost by ¾ of a length, but again, he received another pace setup. On TimeformUS, the first two fractions of 22.44 and 45.53 are labeled in red, and Market Analysis did the hard work by staying close early.

If Attachment Rate's odds do not dip below his 9/2 morning line, then he deserves consideration. He is supposed to get another setup.

Untitled is the least exciting alternative to Mischevious Alex, and that is because the latter already defeated him by 7 ¼ lengths in the Swale. But Untitled got squeezed at the start and did not look comfortable inside.

One month later at Tampa Bay Downs, Untitled secured the lead in an allowance optional claimer and moved better as he dictated terms, even though Gouverneur Morris ran him down. It is possible Untitled did not handle the two-turn stretch out to 1 mile and 70 yards.

Cutting back to a one-turn mile will help. His last two speed figures on TimeformUS are 111 and 106, making him more competitive numbers-wise. But as another strike against Untitled, TimeformUS' Pace Projector puts him on the lead through fast fractions with Mischevious Alex expected to contest the lead with him up front.

Untitled also burned money at low odds in his last two starts, making him difficult to trust.

Montauk Traffic will offer the value, and he will sit in the right position in lower mid-pack. If he gets the pace setup and moves forward, he can upset these. If not, then Attachment Rate might work out a trip or Untitled could last if Mischevious Alex does not run his race.

But if Mischevious Alex still dominates this field with another big win, that will come as no major surprise Saturday.