Analysis: Midnight Bourbon may dominate Clark Stakes
Unless there is a surprise entry to add some intrigue, star 3-year-old Midnight Bourbon looks as close to a lock as possible in next week’s Grade 1, $750,000 Clark Stakes at Churchill Downs on Friday. the Clark is part of the track’s traditional set of stakes races throughout Thanksgiving weekend.
Of course, anything can happen, as Jackie’s Warrior from the same barn of trainer Steve Asmussen demonstrated this month in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. On paper though, Midnight Bourbon is on another world than the other names found on the probables list.
According to the HRN Stakes Tracker, Midnight Bourbon’s opponents might include Maxfield, Code of Honor, King Fury, Independence Hall and Militarist.
Here is a short recap of Midnight Bourbon’s campaign.
Back in January, Midnight Bourbon began the season with a win in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds, before a third-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) and runner-up in the Louisiana Derby (G2).
Those latter two losses made Midnight Bourbon a mild longshot at 13-1 in the Kentucky Derby in May, but a traffic-filled run to the first turn put an end to his chances. To his credit, he did close late to pick up sixth.
Off the troubled Derby effort, the public made Midnight Bourbon 3-1 in the Preakness Stakes. Although the California-based closer Rombauer mowed them down in the stretch, Midnight Bourbon still gave a good impression by dueling Medina Spirit on the front end in the early stages of the race and holding second by two lengths over the tired Kentucky Derby winner.
Only a few weeks ago, Medina Spirit went on to finish second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic while out finishing Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie.
Midnight Bourbon's form remained at a high level in the summer. Although Midnight Bourbon dumped his jockey Paco Lopez in the stretch of the Haskell Stakes (G1) in July, he was on his way to finishing third by two lengths before the incident with Hot Rod Charlie affected him.
In August, Midnight Bourbon then lost to the highly revered Essential Quality by only a neck in the Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga.
One month later, Hot Rod Charlie gave Midnight Bourbon trouble again in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) at Parx Racing by failing to corner on the final turn and carrying Midnight Bourbon super wide in the process. To Midnight Bourbon’s credit, he only lost by 2 1/4 lengths after getting carried out unfairly and still beat the talented Americanrevolution in third.
Americanrevolution could start in the Cigar Mile (G1) at Aqueduct next month as one of the favorites, if not the favorite.
Midnight Bourbon is in another league than the expected Clark field.
Look at the possible morning line second choice Maxfield.
As always, Maxfield is bound to attract attention on the win end. But his record does not show he belongs at the Grade 1 level against the best.
Look at Maxfield’s three Grade 1 attempts this year. Back in March, he lost to Idol and Express Train in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1). Perhaps traveling for the first time affected him, as well as the extra distance.
In August, Maxfield closed for second in the Whitney Stakes (G1) while losing to the eventual Breeders’ Cup Classic champion Knicks Go. The runner-up effort is decent, but Maxfield never looked like a real threat.
One month later, Maxfield failed to pass Art Collector in the Woodward Stakes (G1) at Belmont. Once again, Maxfield settled for second again, and it came against a weaker horse this time than Knicks Go. The winner Art Collector finished a well-beaten sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Maxfield might pass enough horses for second in the Clark. After all, he likes Churchill Downs with wins in the Stephen Foster Stakes (G2) and Alysheba Stakes (G2) in between those Grade 1 losses this year. However, Midnight Bourbon is on a different planet right now in comparison to horses such as Chess Chief, Visitant and Warrior’s Charge, the kind of horses who Maxfield beat in the Stephen Foster and Alysheba.
In fact, the high respect that Maxfield continually receives is strange. On paper, this is a fringe contender for the win in Grade 1 races at best.
What about Code of Honor?
Code of Honor has been off form for a long time, but bettors keep liking him based on his 3-year-old season. Based on his current campaign alone, he is a nice Grade 2 or 3-level closer who won the Philip H. Iselin Stakes (G3) at Monmouth off a layoff. Betting horses based on races that occurred two years ago is a bad idea.
Although Code of Honor finished fourth in the Woodward in his next start, he was no threat in the lane to the winner Art Collector, nor was he able to scare Maxfield in second or Dr. Post in third. Code of Honor had no excuse not to hit the trifecta.
If Code of Honor suddenly woke up in the Clark, it would come as a surprise.
Out of the probables list, King Fury might offer some interesting points to longshot bettors, especially given he is also a developing 3-year-old.
King Fury suffered from a speed bias and zero pace in his fifth-place Travers finish. He rebounded with a 13-length win in the local Bourbon Trail Stakes, but then had no pace to work with again in the Fayette Stakes (G2) at Keeneland while finishing third over the sloppy track.
Good talent might exist in King Fury. However, his lack of success at this high level remains a concern. His season highlight came when a pace collapse helped him take the Lexington Stakes (G2) over the slop at Keeneland. In four career Grade 1 starts, King Fury missed the board each time.
Independence Hall won the Fayette Stakes in his most recent start and ran well to repel Code of Honor at the top of the stretch. Is beating Code of Honor an accomplishment these days though? The slow pace helped Independence Hall too.
Miltarist shows a nice pedigree as a half-brother to former turf star Little Mike. Regardless, his fifth-place finish in the Fayette remains is only stakes experience.
There are no locks in horse racing, but as of this writing, Midnight Bourbon's chances to win the Clark are as close as it gets.