Analysis: Midnight Bourbon is likely to offer value in Haskell
By process of elimination, Preakness runner-up Midnight Bourbon will probably offer the best value in the Grade 1, $1 million Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park on Saturday. Although the son of Tiznow was overbet in the Preakness, it is hard to see that as the case this week with Mandaloun, Hot Rod Charlie and Following Sea set to enter the field.
Here is why those last three names are likely to become overbet.
Mandaloun ran second in the Kentucky Derby, losing by half a length to the controversial gate-to-wire winner Medina Spirit. Many people expect Medina Spirit to become disqualified because of his drug positive.
Instead of running in the other Triple Crown legs though, Mandaloun did not return until the local Pegasus Stakes on June 13. He won by a neck over a resurgent Weyburn, who had won the Gotham Stakes (G3).
The backlash over Medina Spirit has caused the public to slightly overrate Mandaloun. Yes, he might eventually win the Kentucky Derby once the dust settles. No, he is not a dominant force in the 3-year-old division. He can barely defeat Weyburn without the crop. In the Derby, he only beat Hot Rod Charlie by half a length for the runner-up spot.
Why take short odds on Mandaloun when he is not a dominant horse?
As for Hot Rod Charlie, he went on to finish second to Essential Quality in the Belmont Stakes in an excellent effort after setting a fast and contested pace. With pressure from Rock Your World and France Go de Ina chasing them not too far behind, Hot Rod Charlie set fractions of 22.78 and 46.49 for the 1 1/2-mile distance. After those first two fractions, the pace did slow down. Regardless, the damage was done.
In the stretch run, Rock Your World and France Go de Ina fell out of the picture. Yet, Hot Rod Charlie kept fighting in the stretch when Essential Quality made his way to the lead.
Hot Rod Charlie's effort is almost too good, as the majority of pace handicappers (including this one) gave praise to him after the race. Pace handicapping can result in value if smart bettors are not paying attention. In this case, everyone in racing saw the Belmont Stakes.
Because pace handicappers are likely to gush over Hot Rod Charlie, he might not offer value.
Following Sea brings added intrigue into the Haskell as a possible superhorse in development. At this point though, he is still in development with only three starts.
In Following Sea’s second start on April 10, he broke his maiden by 5 3/4 lengths at Oaklawn in easy fashion over a nice colt in Happymac. Back then, Baffert was still the trainer of Following Sea before the controversies surrounding Medina Spirit and his Kentucky Derby win.
Then on June 3 under new trainer Todd Pletcher, Following Sea crushed a four-horse allowance field at Belmont by 6 1/2 lengths. Note the third-place finisher Reinvestment Risk, who had run second in both the Hopeful Stakes (G1) and Champagne Stakes (G1) last year before throwing a clunker in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Because Following Sea won easily in both starts this year and Pletcher trains him, he is likely to attract quite a bit of money. Yet, there are some red flags to ponder.
The Haskell is a nine-furlong race, and Following Sea lacks a start over 6 1/2 furlongs. Most horses do not step forward from six to nine furlongs easily.
Furthermore, Following Sea’s pedigree is sprint-oriented. The dam Quick Flip is a half-sister to Qahira, an active sprinter under Baffert who ran third in the seven-furlong Santa Monica Stakes (G2) and second in the six-furlong Las Flores Stakes (G2) this year. Runhappy as the sire on top does not inspire confidence either.
For a third red flag, Following Sea lacks any stakes experience, let alone graded stakes experience. If he starts, he is jumping from an allowance to Grade 1.
Despite those flaws, the public is unlikely to avoid him. Following Sea is a potential star and Pletcher trains. Those two factors will make Following Sea a play for casual bettors and drive his price down.
Therefore, the value horse by default is Midnight Bourbon.
Midnight Bourbon won the Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds to start his campaign in a promising way, before a third in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) and second in the Louisiana Derby (G2) took off some the hype and discussion about him heading into the Kentucky Derby.
Forget about his sixth in the Kentucky Derby. Midnight Bourbon did not break well enough, and from there the challenges of a 19-horse field proved too difficult.
Midnight Bourbon came back with a strong second in the Preakness after contesting a fast pace with Medina Spirit. He understandably became a little tired at the end when Rombauer went by both of them.
Off the Preakness effort, Midnight Bourbon is a major contender in the Haskell. With four 3-year-old stars in the field though, one of them has to start as the fourth choice. It is likely Midnight Bourbon. There are factors about Midnight Bourbon that will discourage the public this time.
For one, Midnight Bourbon carries a four-race losing streak into the Haskell.
Also, the strength of the field is likely to squeeze out Midnight Bourbon in betting. With both Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie now present to attract money after their 2-3 finish in the Kentucky Derby, the public figures to put significant money on those two names. Add in Following Sea, and Midnight Bourbon might start as the third or fourth choice.
In addition, bettors tend to hold a recency bias in handicapping. Midnight Bourbon ran second in the Preakness, but in more recent times Following Sea won a Belmont allowance race easily, Hot Rod Charlie was a great second in the Belmont and Mandaloun won the local Pegasus.
Midnight Bourbon is not a flashy horse either. If he wins the Haskell, the accomplishment is likely to happen after a close fight in the stretch.
For those reasons, Midnight Bourbon is probable to offer value in the Haskell. Of course, post positions still need to come out and the field could change. Regardless, this looks like Midnight Bourbon’s time to shine, and he might pay off at more than fair odds in the process.