Analysis: Midnight Bisou beatable in Breeders' Cup Distaff

Given Midnight Bisou carries a 7-for-7 record this year heading into Saturday's $2 million Breeders' Cup Distaff Santa Anita Park, the hype behind her is understandable. She won at five racetracks in that span, with each victory in a graded stakes. Plus, she won at nine furlongs twice.

Despite all the wins, there are potential weaknesses.

Three of Midnight Bisou's wins came against easy fields, including the Houston Ladies Classic (G3), Molly Pitcher Stakes (G3) and Beldame Stakes (G2). Starting in the Houston Ladies Classic was fine. But why did Midnight Bisou enter the Molly Pitcher at Monmouth in mid-season?

The Beldame Stakes (G2) and Personal Ensign Stakes (G1) wins came at nine furlongs. But in the former, it is questionable whether Midnight Bisou defeated the same calible of runner inWow Cat as last year. Also, Elate may have been better than the version of her Midnight Bisou beat in the Personal Ensign?

Midnight Bisou's speed figures do not appear impressive, either, at least not for a 6/5 shot in the Breeders' Cup. On the TimeformUS scale, her most-recent figures are 119 and 124. Every major contender in this race is capable of breaking 120.

With all those points said, Midnight Bisou remains the top contender and could still win. But there are alternatives to consider at better prices.

One of the most interesting longshots is Ollie's Candy, the third-place finisher in the Zenyatta Stakes (G1) in late September.

As I've pointed out often in recent weeks Ollie's Candy received a bizarre ride in the Zenyatta when Kent Desormeaux elected to take her back early. From there, Ollie's Candy needed to make a mid-race move to secure position again.

Ollie's Candy had a clear shot on the far turn to mow down Paradise Woods and Secret Spice. But the middle move took something out of her.

With new rider Joel Rosario, expect a more aggressive ride. If Ollie's Candy is within a few lengths of the lead, she could upset.

The Zenyatta runner-up, Secret Spice, is interesting too.

Secret Spice contested the pace with Paradise Woods and became tired late, fading 1 ¾ lengths behind. But as she stretches out to nine furlongs, the connections may use more conservative tactics based on her workouts.

Here's last Saturday's final breeze, in which she passed two horses in front. It is not clear whether those horses are her stablemates. But for most of October, Secret Spice has worked behind a listed stablemate. 

If Paradise Woods and Serengeti Empress get tangled in a suicidal speed duel, then Secret Spice could find herself in the right spot a few lengths behind. On the negative side, she is still unproven at nine furlongs.

Out of the 3-year-old fillies, Street Band offers the most intrigue.

At the beginning of the year, Street Band did not look like a particularly fast horse, as she ran a well-beaten fourth in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2) and seventh in the Kentucky Oaks. Serengeti Empress won those races.

But Street Band moved forward when winning the Indiana Oaks (G3) with a 112 on TimeformUS. She then finished a good third behind Dunbar Road in the Alabama Stakes (G1) with a 116, before winning the Cotillion Stakes (G1) by 2 ¼ lengths with an impressive 124 TimeformUS figure.

She also should find herself in mid-pack, not too far off the lead. 

Those trying to beat Midnight Bisou could go in other directions too.

For example, Dunbar Road only lost by 1 1/4 lengths in the Spinster Stakes (G1) at Keeneland. As another 3-year-old filly, she could move forward.

Blue Prize is entered too, and bettors might forget about her.

Paradise Woods could break sharp from the rail and get lucky if Serengeti Empress fails to press her. Likewise, Serengeti Empress could gun to the lead from Post 9 and find herself alone if Paradise Woods stumbles.

Essentially, if you're looking to single Saturday, consider the risks of doing so with Midnight Bisou.  

Ollie's Candy is my preference to oppose. She runs better when she shows tactical speed, but she is not fast enough to get tangled in a duel with Paradise Woods or Serengeti Empress. At 15-1, this filly is worth a shot against the big favorite.