Analysis: Why Midnight Bisou can upset the Cotillion Stakes

Having lost to her rival twice before, Midnight Bisou faces Monomoy Girl again in the Grade 1, $1 million Cotillion Stakes on Saturday at Parx Racing. There is reason to believe the outcome will turn in her favor, plus she could finally offer value, too.

Midnight Bisou started off her career at an amazing 21-1 last October and lost by a nose to Dream Tree, who has proven to be a nice filly. In a span of eight races since then, Midnight Bisou has not started higher than 2-1. While she has not run particularly fast in those races, none of her efforts were bad enough to repel bettors.

But maybe that subpar performance finally came in the 1 1/4-mile Alabama Stakes (G1).

When closers cannot get a longer distance, they tend to make a good-looking move on the far turn before fading in a “rubber band” kind of sequence.

A rubber band can only take a different shape for a temporary period, before snapping back into its original form. Horses can only sustain their runs for so long.

Midnight Bisou loomed dangerously on the far turn in the Alabama, reaching the leaders Talk Veuve to Me and She’s a Julie, before flattening out to lose by six.

Almost the same sequence happened in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), also a two-turn event at Saratoga but at a slightly shorter nine-furlong distance. 

On the far turn, Midnight Bisou ranged up on outside Monomoy Girl, and the stage for an epic duel between two stars was set. Then Midnight Bisou's run stalled. 

Mike Smith used left-handed strikes, but she offered no response and became stuck in neutral. The nine-furlong distance was just too long.

At 1 1/16 miles or shorter, though, Midnight Bisou is sharp. For example, three starts ago Midnight Bisou won the Mother Goose Stakes (G2) at Belmont by six lengths. 

In this race, Midnight Bisou took a logical spot behind the pacesetter and made her usual move around the turn. But this time, Smith did not bother to hit her in the stretch. He knew Midnight Bisou was loaded once she ranged up outside Road to Victory.

To be fair, Midnight Bisou faced a weaker field in the Mother Goose. But she also won the Santa Anita Oaks (G1) and Santa Ysabel (G3) earlier in the year at the same distance and around two turns. Her record at 1 1/16 miles cannot be ignored.

It seems clear the public will unload on Monomoy Girl once more, so the logical play is Midnight Bisou, who's 5-1 on the morning line. And if Midnight Bisou cannot upset Monomoy Girl, perhaps Wonder Gadot can.

Without a doubt, Wonder Gadot turned in a clunker in the Travers Stakes (G1) against males. She settled into a ground-saving trip and folded on the far turn. For the first time since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, she failed to break 100 on TimeformUS.

But otherwise, Wonder Gadot has been consistent for most of 2018. Besides the three races she recently won in Canada, including the Queens Plate Stakes, she also finished a solid second by half a length to Monomoy Girl in the Kentucky Oaks. 

This effort tends to be forgotten, as Wonder Gadot has been labeled as that filly who beat soft Canadian fields. In the Oaks, however, Wonder Gadot fought bravely and gave Monomoy Girl the stirring stretch duel that Midnight Bisou never did.

The Travers flop is a concern, but if Wonder Gadot fires, she is capable of winning.  

Now to discuss Monomoy Girl. There is little more to reveal, as no one needs a public handicapper to explain why Monomoy Girl is a talented filly. She has won all five starts this year, including the Ashland Stakes (G1), Kentucky Oaks, Acorn Stakes (G1) and Coaching Club American Oaks. Furthermore, she can set the pace or lay off slightly.

The connections believe distance is her one kryptonite, and that is why they skipped the Alabama Stakes. But the Cotillion should be up her alley.

Monomoy Girl can obviously win -- at 3/5.

As for a longshot who can make some noise underneath, Chocolate Martini fits the bill. She ran third in the Coaching Club American Oaks at 43-1. While she will not go off at 43-1 again, as with Midnight Bisou, cutting back slightly may help sharpen her closing kick.

Separationofpowers will take some action, too, but she looks like a one-turn horse. In six career starts, she has only tried two turns once, when she finished a disappointing fourth with an outside trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, on an outside-biased surface. Like Midnight Bisou, she moved on the turn and flattened.

Upon her summer 2018 return, the connections chose to kick off the campaign with two sprint races, the Victory Ride (G3) and Test (G1). They likely do not believe Separationofpowers is a true router. Otherwise, they would stretch out sooner.

If Separationofpowers fires, expect her to finish underneath somewhere in the trifecta or superfecta. She is an unlikely win candidate though without routing proof.

Norma’s Charm and Dixie Serenade are also in this race, and they are sprinters too until proven otherwise. The latter won the Victory Ride over Separationofpowers.

Jump Ruler completes the field, and she is severely overmatched. If anything, maybe she can soften up Monomoy Girl and set up Midnight Bisou’s rally.

There are no surprises. Either Midnight Bisou, Wonder Gadot or Monomoy Girl look like your winner, but at least the first two options will go off at a decent price. Hopefully Midnight Bisou’s flat Alabama effort can disgust bettors enough to lay off her. 

At the very least, all three fillies need to be considered in horizontals.