Analysis: Midcourt enters Native Diver off tough trip

Pointing out horses who were pace-compromised in their last start remains a focus of this blog, and an obvious one is entered as the favorite in the Grade 3, $100,000 Native Diver Stakes at Del Mar. The short field of five will travel nine furlongs on Saturday, and the race provides some needed graded stakes excitement on an otherwise ordinary card.

As shown in his Awesome Again Stakes (G1) running line, Midcourt finished third by five lengths after sitting close to the pacesetter through the early stages. But considering the flow of the race, the fractions and the efforts of the horses who returned, he is the best horse in this race.

Here is a recap of the Awesome Again.  

At the break, Take the One O One heads to the lead under aggressive urging, while Sleepy Eyes Todd, Maximum Security and Midcourt follow.

Midcourt is four wide through a fast pace.  

Initially, Improbable settles behind them, only a length or two behind.  

Even without knowing the early fractions, it is obvious the pace is fast, or moderately fast, because the front group separates from Improbable by six lengths at the half-mile point. In a fast pace scenario, closers cannot keep pace with headstrong leaders, causing the separation.   

Midcourt went wide on the first turn through a fast pace, which is a difficult situation for a speed horse. He still kept traveling wide after Take the One O One set opening fractions of 23.33 and 46.36 for the nine-furlong distance, and the pace did not let up afterward. 

On the far turn, Midcourt remains wide as Take the One O One does not step off the pedal through six furlongs in a hot 1:09.79, which TimeformUS marks in red. After Take the One O One creates a brief separation from the trio with his last bit of thrust in reserve, he finally folds at the top of the stretch and lets a circling Improbable take over. 

In the stretch run, Midcourt is well beaten for first but never quits despite the ground loss and fast pace. Notice that Midcourt stays on Maximum Security’s flank for the stretch before his eventual third-place finish, with another 3 3/4 lengths back to Take the One O One in fourth and 7 1/4 lengths between Midcourt and Sleepy Eyes Todd in last.

As stated before, spaced-out margins indicate a quality race. Plus, Sleepy Eyes Todd won the Lafayette Stakes on the Breeders’ Cup undercard in his next start, while Improbable ran second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic to back up the Awesome Again. Maximum Security could manage only fifth in the Classic, but partially because he let his stablemate Authentic coast along a comfortable lead early on. 

Maximum Security shows a 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his Awesome Again runner-up and a 124 for his fifth in the Classic. Midcourt arguably had a tougher trip than Maximum Security in the Awesome Again and still put up a 125 for third. He needs only the same figure to win against this Grade 3 field, which seems likely given the facts.

Furthermore, Midcourt’s main pace threat is not Take the One O One, Sleepy Eyes Todd or Maximum Security. Rather, it is Stellar Sound. 

Stellar Sound is a fine 3-year-old filly who won an optional claimer at Santa Anita by seven lengths upon return on Oct. 2, but facing older male horses in a Grade 3 race is a different task. If Stellar Sound runs, Midcourt is supposed to handle a filly that shows no clear advantage. 

Extra Hope might provide some pace too. But even though he contested the lead in his Sept. 26 optional claiming win, the fractions were not very fast for one mile. In all likelihood, he gives some space. 

As for the other two runners, Combatant figures to concede roughly five to six lengths to the leading group, and the turf horse Royal Ship might give up even more lengths as a turf closer. Why would he show speed now? Besides that, Royal Ship’s pedigree is not very suitable for dirt. 

On paper and from a visual standpoint, this is Midcourt’s race. If Victor Espinoza opts for an aggressive start and sends, he can break Stellar Sound’s sprit and keep Extra Hope at bay with a one- or two-length advantage on the backstretch. From there, Midcourt can open up on the turn and create separation before Combatant or Royal Ship close. 

This is a tough race to pick a second-place horse behind Midcourt. Perhaps Extra Hope can let Stellar Sound accomplish the dirty work and reserve enough energy to hold off Combatant and Royal Ship, but the payoff for a Midcourt over Extra Hope exacta is not exactly tempting. 

Just settle for Midcourt as the single in the early Pick 4, or skip the race. If Midcourt is even money or higher, bettors might want to think about a simple win bet too. Do not bother with a place bet on Midcourt.

Odds and value aside, Midcourt is the probable winner who steps down in class after showing speed against Breeder's Cup quality horses. If he fails to get it done against this group, then he might never win again.