Analysis: Mean Mary can upset Rushing Fall in Diana Stakes
Given Rushing Fall’s sharp form, the Grade 1, $500,000 Diana Stakes at Saratoga is not an easy race to play against the favorite. With only six older fillies and mares competing in the nine-furlong turf race, there are limited other options as well.
Regardless, there is one improving 4-year-old filly in the race capable of stepping up to the plate — Mean Mary. She is trained by Graham Motion and ridden by Luis Saez.
With three wins this year and five wins in seven races overall, Mean Mary sports a winning record. Also, she is only becoming faster.
Mean Mary began this campaign in the 1 1/2-mile La Prevoyante Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park. She led uncontested and pulled clear to win by five lengths late. Two months later, she won the Orchid Stakes in the same pacesetting fashion by one length.
For both of those races, TimeformUS awarded her a career-high 118 figure.
After three months off, Mean Mary came back in the New York Stakes (G2) at Belmont with an even better race, at least in terms of figures.
Once again, Mean Mary set the pace uncontested. This time, she led through slow fractions of 25.11 and 51.55, and the early pace figures marked in blue on TimeformUS of 113 and 116 confirm the slow pace.
However, she pulls away in impressive fashion.
On the far turn, Call Me Love creeps within 2 1/2 lengths of Mean Mary. But when they straighten out in the stretch, Mean Mary zooms 5 1/4 lengths clear of the field to win easily.
Call Me Love became tired and could only manage a fourth-place finish. But on paper, she is no turtle. Prior to the New York, Call Me Love lost by only two lengths to Rushing Fall in the Beaugay Stakes (G3). After the New York, she barely lost the Ballston Spa Stakes (G2) by a neck to Starship Jubilee, with the champion Sistercharlie in third.
My Sister Nat gave a nice rally to pick up second. One start later, she won the local Waya Stakes (G3) over Mrs. Sippy, last year’s runner-up in the Flower Bowl Stakes (G1).
The third-place Feel Glorious won the Perfect Sting Stakes in her most recent start.
While the slow pace and uncontested lead were factors, the way Mean Mary dominated the field indicates quality. And she did not blast away from pushovers.
Mean Mary also won with a career-high 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which puts her on par with Rushing Fall’s 124 in the Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1) and only two points behind Rushing Fall’s 126 in the Beaugay Stakes (G3). But Mean Mary is younger and could move forward, while Rushing Fall probably hit her ceiling.
To touch upon Rushing Fall, she is in excellent form after those wins in the Jenny Wiley and Beaugay. In the former race, she set the pace uncontested and turned away Got Stormy on the turn, before keeping Call Me Love at bay in the stretch.
In the latter race, she adjusted to Jolie Olimpica setting the pace and tracked her in second early, before outkicking Jolie Olimpica, Juliet Foxtrot and Toinette to win.
Rushing Fall did need to work under a ride in the stretch before inching clear, but a hard-fought win is acceptable when the field contains high-quality runners.
Without a doubt, Rushing Fall is in top form. Even if this is her ceiling, it is one high ceiling for others to challenge.
The question is whether Rushing Fall can prevail again at nine furlongs with a rising talent in Mean Mary either pressing or tracking her in second. Based on Rushing Fall’s nine-furlong record of 3-2-1-0 alone, she is supposed to handle the distance.
To raise some doubt, Rushing Fall did fade slightly in this race last year when Sistercharlie rallied for the victory following a fast pace. Then again, she lost to the best version of Sistercharlie, and perhaps that is nothing to criticize.
As another strike, the value is not great on Rushing Fall, with the public eager to bet a Chad Brown-trained turf horse in top form. But odds and value aside, Rushing Fall is a win contender along with Mean Mary.
In contrast to Rushing Fall’s sharp form, defending champion Sistercharlie is slowly declining in form despite some decent efforts. She won the Flower Bowl, but the narrow 3/4-length margin over Mrs. Sippy gave pause for concern. Then, Sistercharlie ran third in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf with no real excuse.
Most recently, Sistercharlie lost by 1 1/2 lengths in the Ballston Spa to Starship Jubilee. She had every chance in the stretch run to pass her.
Perhaps the 1 1/16-mile distance was too short. But given Sistercharlie won the 2018 Jenny Wiley Stakes at the same distance, that is hard to accept as a reason. She also ran off a 266-day layoff, but she won the Diana last year off a 252-day layoff.
With Grade 2 status, it is possible Brown did not see the Ballston Spa as important to win and undertrained Sistercharlie prior to the race. Either that or a 6-year-old mare such as her needs more time.
Sistercharlie needs to prove herself. The disappointing third in the Ballston Spa combined with the lackluster Flower Bowl victory and third in the Breeders’ Cup all create a giant red flag.
The race comes down to Mean Mary and Rushing Fall.
Vertically, if Mean Mary holds as third choice or higher, she is worth a win bet and deserves a top slot in exotics wagers. To save money, toss out Sistercharlie.
For example, one trifecta wheel might look like 6 / 1,3,4 / 1,3,4.
For those who do not feel safe keying Mean Mary, they could also include Rushing Fall on top. But with only six horses and shorter payouts, precision is preferable.