Analysis: Maximum Security the standout Saudi Cup entry
Led by the top American dirt star Maximum Security, the $20 million Saudi Cup is scheduled to be run on Feb. 29 at King Abdulaziz Racetrack. Eleven horses were listed this week to run in the nine-furlong contest, with the final declaration and draw scheduled for Feb. 25.
King Abdulaziz Racetrack runs its dirt races around one turn with use of a long chute for this 1 1/8-mile race. Lasix and Bute will not be allowed for contenders.
If Maximum Security handles the new environment and change in medication rules, his presence will certainly be felt. The 4-year-old colt trained by Jason Servis is coming off a championship season in which he won three Grade 1 races including the Florida Derby (G1), Haskell (G1) and Cigar Mile (G1). He also crossed the wire first in the Kentucky Derby.
Furthermore, Maximum Security is versatile in terms of running style. While he prefers to set the pace, this horse can sit off other speed types.
The most obvious challengers to Maximum Security are the top American older dirt males McKinzie, Mucho Gusto and Gift Box, if the latter shows up.
The problem with Mucho Gusto's recent Pegasus World Cup (G1) win is that he faced a weaker group than expected. He was also ridden hard in the stretch to defeat that field. But it is possible that he is improving.
As for McKinzie, he is unraced since a runner-up finish in the Breeders' Cup Classic. His other 2019 highlights include a win in the Whitney Stakes (G1) and seconds in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1), Metropolitan Handicap (G1) and Awesome Again Stakes (G1). McKinzie gets his favored nine-furlong distance in this spot and owns the right tactical speed.
Given McKinzie is a 5-year-old horse, he is likely in the best form of his career. It is not hard to imagine him defeating Maximum Security, especially with the Bob Baffert barn, a winner of the Dubai World Cup (G1), more used to shipping and running horses internationally.
Gift Box also owns speed, and used it to successfully return off a layoff in the San Antonio Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita in December. Previously, he turned in a disappointing fourth in the Stephen Foster Stakes (G2).
Despite racing as a 7-year-old, Gift Box remains in top form. Like with Mucho Gusto, though, the concern is how he would fare against better horses. Trainer John Sadler is likely to keep him home for the March 7 Santa Anita Handicap (G1).
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Other top Americans to watch are Midnight Bisou and Tacitus.
The 5-year-old mare Midnight Bisou went through an interesting campaign last year in which she won seven of eight starts, including the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1), Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1) and Personal Ensign Stakes (G1). Her lone blemish came when second in the Breeders' Cup Distaff to Blue Prize. It ended a long season, but jockey Mike Smith also offered a conservative ride.
Midnight Bisou will tackle males for the first time in a difficult race. She deserves the spot, but it is truly difficult to gauge her ability in open company.
Tacitus makes his first start since a disappointing third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) late last September. Before that race, he earned runner-up placings in the Travers Stakes (G1), Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and Belmont Stakes, as well as a third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby after the disqualification.
Tacitus did win the Tampa Bay Derby (G1) and Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) last spring, although those two races feel like distant past. He did break his maiden at age 2 without Lasix.
Now to discuss some international names.
Benbatl captured Meydan's Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 (G2) on Thursday in a stylish dirt debut for the connections of Thunder Snow, the back-to-back Dubai World Cup hero since retired. Benbatl's previous accomplishments came on turf and include wins in the 2018 Dubai Turf (G1), Grosser-Dallmayr-Preis (G1) and Caulfield Stakes (G1) -- each on different continents.
While Benbatl defeated Gronkowski in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2, now he will face a fitter version of Gronkowski and more proven dirt horses.
Gronkowski is a familiar name because of his runner-up to Justify in the 2018 Belmont Stakes. After off-the-board finishes in the Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup, though, as well as a third-place finish in the Discovery Handicap (G3), Gronkowski was sent to Dubai. He jumped way up to run a game second to Thunder Snow in the 2019 World Cup.
Magic Wand recently finished second in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1) at Gulfstream. Prior to the race, she was also second in the Hong Kong Cup (G1) and won the Mackinnon Stakes (G1).
Given Magic Wand's breeding -- she's by Galileo -- it's questionable whether that form will transfer to dirt. Her dam side does not offer any more hope.
Chrysoberyl and Gold Dream are more difficult to asses given they come from Japan. For what it is worth, the two of them finished 1-2 in the Champions Cup (G1).
For a more detailed description of King Abdulaziz Racetrack, there is a video featuring track manager Bob Turman describing the surface.
Turman makes it known that the dirt is less compact and softer. This description favors front runners because it will allow them to glide on the lead, and they'll only have to traverse one turn.
With that point in mind, the race runs through Maximum Security. If he takes one small step forward off his 3-year-old form, defeating him will prove difficult. But the change in medication rules and environment are two concerns.
If Maximum Security fails, in all likelihood another American will step up to win this race. The general rule is that America offers the best dirt horses, while the best turf horses run elsewhere around the world. That looks true here, too, with the U.S. getting the chance to prove it in the world's richest race.