Analysis: March to the Arch offers value in Wise Dan
With 11 horses in the Grade 2, $100,000 Wise Dan Stakes at Churchill Downs on Saturday, the race attracted a decent-sized field. As with many large graded turf stakes though, this one does not figure to offer any huge surprises as there are a select few names with a higher class.
Nevertheless, there is value within the main contender group. On paper, the three horses most probable to win are Factor This, March to the Arch and Aquaphobia. All three of those names fall in the single-digit range, but March to the Arch is 6-1 and likely to remain at those odds.
March to the Arch is a logical threat based on his class.
To start off, March to the Arch won this race last year, defeating familiar names such as Admission Office and Parlor.
Afterwards, March to the Arch failed to capture a single race the rest of 2019. However, he still performed well against some tough competition. For example, March to the Arch closed for fourth in the Fourstardave Handicap (G1) and fifth by one length in the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1).
This year, March to the Arch opened his campaign by winning the Florida-bred restricted Sunshine Millions Turf Cup. He followed that effort up with a close third in the Tampa Bay Stakes (G3), only losing by a head to Admiralty Pier.
Out of the Tampa Bay Stakes, runner-up Devamani went on to finish second in the Fort Marcy Stakes (G2), and the fourth-place Halladay took an optional claimer and also won the Sunshine Forever Stakes.
March to the Arch then finished third again in the Appleton Stakes (G3). But that is forgivable because of the traffic problems he went through.
Watch him get stuck behind Dr. Edgar and a folding El Tormenta.
From there, March to the Arch tried to tip out. But it took him a moment to clear Mr Dumas. Then as Social Paranoia rallied, Sombeyay came out.
Therefore, March to the Arch’s third is better than it looks on paper.
One race later, March to the Arch traveled to California for the Shoemaker Mile (G1), where he finished a dismal 10th by 12 ¾ lengths. Toss the race out. At no point did he even attempt to run. Also, for whatever reason, trainer Mark Casse does not fare well at Santa Anita.
Back at Churchill Downs, March to the Arch is more likely to fire his usual race. If nothing else, he will offer higher odds than Factor This.
Although he is an obvious choice, Factor This is a major contender as well based on his last two races, both gate-to-wire victories.
On Feb. 15, Factor This led all the way in the Fair Grounds Stakes (G2) to win by one length. One start later, he won the same Muniz Memorial Classic (G2) in the same fashion, this time by three lengths.
In this pace scenario, Factor This is probable to secure the front as the inside speed. The only question is whether he can handle outside pressure from Ritzy A. P. If left alone, he will be difficult to mow down.
Aquaphobia finished fourth to Factor This in the Muniz Memorial Classic by 4 ¾ lengths. He tipped out and hung, as Factor This kept going. To Aquaphobia’s credit, it is hard to catch an uncontested leader.
One start later, Aquaphobia tried the Sunshine Forever Stakes and once again failed to mow down an uncontested leader in Halladay.
In that same race, Aquaphobia still finished in front of two notable names in Social Paranoia and Admission Office. Admission Office recently took the Louisville Stakes (G3) over the hard-luck Arklow.
Under the care of trainer Michael Maker, Aquaphobia morphed into a consistent horse. However, he does need to close the deal and win.
Aquaphobia is not the preferred selection, but he deserves a look. At a minimum, he is a worthy horse to include in the multi-race wagers.
From a value standpoint, March to the Arch is still the right horse because the flop at Santa Anita will discourage bettors and float up his odds. Besides Casse’s struggling record at The Great Race Place, there is no reason for the bad race. But horses are not running machines.
Use March to the Arch along with Factor This and Aquaphobia.