Kentucky Derby 2022: Many reasons to choose Epicenter

With all the points races over, the 2022 Kentucky Derby puzzle has become a bit more clear in terms of narrowing down the top contenders for the May 7 race. One of those contenders is Epicenter, and he clicks off the right boxes heading into the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs.

Unless Epicenter draws a bad post or trains poorly, the son of Not This Time is likely to become the top choice on here mainly because of the key race angle. For the most part, Epicenter has dominated the Fair Grounds group of 3-year-olds, and a number of those runners came back to perform well.

Here is a recap of key horses who finished behind Epicenter.

When Epicenter lost the Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds by a nose in January, he still finished 10 lengths in front of Cyberknife in sixth. In his next two starts after fading in the Lecomte, Cyberknife finished first in an optional claiming race at Fair Grounds by three lengths in mid-February and captured the Arkansas Derby (G1) in April for his first graded-stakes win.

Granted, Cyberknife went into the Lecomte without the right seasoning before he put his talent together in those next two starts. But Cyberknife still added credibility to the Lecomte by winning twice. Epicenter himself went on to capture the Risen Star Stakes (G2) and the Louisiana Derby (G2) after his narrow loss in the Lecomte.

When Epicenter won the Risen Star, he hit the key race angle jackpot with Slow Down Andy, Tawny Port and Zandon each returning to win a Derby points race elsewhere. Slow Down Andy took the Sunland Derby (G2) in late March, Zandon won the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland in early April and Tawny Port won the Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland last weekend.

As for Epicenter’s Louisiana Derby (G2) victory in March, the race does not show any next-out winners yet. In fairness, though, only Rattle N Roll and Call Me Midnight have run since. At this point, it is too early to judge the Louisiana Derby as a whole, as it could turn into a key race.

There are other reasons to choose Epicenter.

Epicenter earned only a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the Risen Star, but he improved to a 118 for his Louisiana Derby win. On Beyer Speed Figures, Epicenter earned a 98 for the Risen Star and moved up to a big 102 Beyer Speed Figure for winning the Louisiana Derby. On Beyer Figures, Epicenter is one fast colt.

From a visual standpoint, Epicenter always wins his races with style by  finishing off the race nicely. He gives the impression of more in the tank.

Epicenter won the Risen Star in hand by 2 3/4 lengths over the closing Smile Happy, with Zandon settling for third. Even though Smile Happy and Zandon cut into the margin slightly, it almost felt like Epicenter was toying with those two opponents. Then in the Louisiana Derby, Epicenter hit the front in the stretch and crossed over both Zozos and Pioneer of Medina before drawing clear by roughly the same margin as before. 

Except for his narrow loss in the Lecomte because of a fast pace, Epicenter knows how to finish off his races and widen the margin in mid-stretch. From watching him, it does not seem 10 furlongs will pose a problem.

Epicenter also can win in different ways. Although he enjoys setting the pace, that position is not certain even with recent defections because of the Tim Yakteen duo of Messier and Taiba. Last December, Epicenter won the newly formed Gun Runner Stakes after pressing the leader Surfer Dude. Then, Epicenter took up the pocket position with no problem in the Louisiana Derby before switching out on the far turn.

No matter what, Epicenter looks probable to settle among the first group in the Kentucky Derby. An upfront position is important because of the nature of a 20-horse field. Even the best of closers are likely to find traffic.

For the reasons above, Epicenter is probably the top blog choice for the Derby. Again, the final pick can change if Epicenter draws the rail or trains poorly for trainer Steve Asmussen. In addition, there is room to choose a long shot or two to use alongside him.

But unless something changes, expect to read many positive thoughts about Epicenter on here leading up to the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs.