Analysis: Malathaat is hard to play against in Doubledogdare

Because of Malathaat’s presence in the Grade 3, $300,000 Doubledogdare Stakes at Keeneland, the Friday feature becomes a fun race to watch and a hard one to bet as the Eclipse Award-winning filly starts off her campaign in a soft spot before moving on to a Grade 1.  

Is there any room for an upset? If there is a chance for Malathaat to lose, the possibility is not strong enough to bet on that idea.

Here is a short recap of Malathaat’s 2021 season.

Malathaat began last year by capturing the Ashland Stakes (G1) at Keeneland by a head over Pass the Champagne, and she took the Kentucky Oaks by a neck over Search Results to start off with two wins.

After losing the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) at Saratoga by a head to Maracuja, Malathaat then won the Alabama Stakes (G1) by 1 1/2 lengths on the same course in August to pick up a third Grade 1.

In her last 2021 start, Malathaat gave a closing bid in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Del Mar to finish third and lose by only half a length to the upset winner Marche Lorraine. With that said, a suicidal pace set up by Private Mission in the first half did help Malathaat finish well and resulted in the favorite Letruska folding. But Malathaat deserves credit for completing the trifecta in her debut against older fillies and mares. 

Overall, Malathaat had a successful season as a 3-year-old filly. One odd note is that Malathaat never posted any fast speed figures. Regardless, Malathaat knew how to get the job done in the biggest filly races. 

In preparation for this start, Malathaat shows a recent April 14 work in company with stablemate Happy Saver. The full workout can be seen on XBTV.

During the workout, Happy Saver is urged at different points to keep up with Malathaat. Perhaps Happy Saver does not like working out, but Malathaat came off as looking great. As an older 4-year-filly filly, Malathaat might take one more step forward in ability.

None of the opponents are exciting enough to play against Malathaat.  

Bonny South won this race last year by a narrow margin over Royal Flag and Graceful Princess. She then went on to lose five straight races, and those losses include a puzzling fifth-place finish at 2-5 in the Delaware Handicap (G2) in mid-July.

In fairness to Bonny South, her runner-up finish by half a length to Letruska in the Personal Ensign Stakes (G1) is not a bad effort, even with the pace setup. In fact, three of those five losses in the streak came against Letruska.

At 8-5 on the morning line though, Bonny South is no bargain. She probably needs to drift upward to at least 7-2 in order to become fair. 

Crazy Beautiful might attract some betting support. After a flat fourth in the Royal Delta Stakes (G3) to start her season, Crazy Beautiful won the Latonia Stakes at Turfway Park on synthetic earlier this month. But in their few races together last year, Crazy Beautiful could not finish in the same ballpark as Malathaat.

The expected pacesetter Super Quick lacks the right class. Plus, she figures to receive outside pressure from Lady Mystify, who is also eager to show speed.

Lady Mystify won the Remington Park Oaks (G3) last year by three lengths and ran second in the Zia Park Oaks to close out her season. On paper, she gives the impression of a nice Grade 3 type who has the misfortune of facing Malathaat in this spot. Watch out for her next time.

Audrey’s Time shows a pair of third-place finishes in the Houston Ladies Classic Stakes (G3) at Sam Houston and a Fair Grounds optional claimer to start her season. In the optional claimer, Audrey’s Time gets a pass as the high-class Clairiere dominated the overmatched field by six lengths. If she cannot run with Clairiere, though, how can Audrey’s Time upset Malathaat?

If this race has to be used in multi-race wagers, Malathaat is the single.

Otherwise, consider finding a more approachable race.