Analysis: Long-shot play for Fountain of Youth Stakes

With a competitive field lined up for the Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream on Saturday, it feels like a good opportunity to side with the Dale Romans-trained Howling Time, who is listed as 15-1 on the morning line. He can upset this group at a nice price.  

One reason to choose Howling Time is the ability he showed last fall when he broke his maiden Churchill Downs by 1 1/2 lengths and won the Street Sense Stakes by a clear 3 1/4 lengths after stalking the pace.

It is a great sign to see a horse finish off the race in his route debut and widen the margin, rather than only hold on late as the closers arrive.

The runner-up Red Danger won his next start in the Pulpit Stakes on turf.

After Howling Time’s first two wins, he disappointed bettors at 2-1 by setting the pace and fading to fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). But he probably needed the experience of racing against a higher class.

Howling Time went on a break and now returns off a 98-day layoff.

Some handicappers might dismiss Howling Time off the three-month rest. But the break is not a huge concern. Remember how Romans won the 2018 Fountain of Youth off the same exact break with Promises Fulfilled? Promises Fulfilled even gave the same pattern on paper because he faded to third in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Romans knows how to win this race without a more recent prep race in between.

On that note, another reason to choose Howling Time is that he has had fast works since finishing fifth in the KJC. Howling Time’s three most recent workouts all are bullets. In his Feb. 19 bullet, Howling Time easily outworked his stablemate Mr. Bouma while running the four furlongs in a blazing 46.65. It ended up as the best four-furlong time out of 103 horses working the same distance for the morning.

For those with an XBTV account, the Feb. 19 work is worth a watch. In fact, all three bullet workouts are worth watching, even if he works alone in the other two spins. In the Feb. 26 work, Howling Time goes five furlongs in 58.54, while his stablemate Giant Game works in 59 flat for the same distance on the same morning. Getting caught up in workout times is not a great idea, but Howling Time looks excellent in that category. 

Choosing a horse based on early promise and fast works is not always a great idea, but the double-digit odds on Howling Time give more incentive to look past his flaws. At 15-1 or so, Howling Time gets the benefit of the doubt for his fade to fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club last November.

If there is room in multi-race wagers, take a look at using Simplification and Emmanuel alongside Howling Time. Both colts show obvious positive qualities, including good early speed and raw talent.

Simplification was the expected pacesetter in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) last month, but he broke poorly and had to settle into an outside position toward the rear. Gradually, he made his way into contention on the final turn and took second in the stretch as White Abarrio put the field away late.

Assuming Simplification breaks well, he is a threat to wire the field. With that said, he does face expected early pressure from Emmanuel.

Emmanuel shows one local maiden win by 6 3/4 lengths and an optional claiming win by 4 1/2 lengths at Tampa Bay Downs in two career starts for trainer Todd Pletcher. He won both races in an easy manner, which suggests he is capable of stepping forward. In addition, Emmanuel likes to race up front too, although he does not own blazing speed. On paper, he should settle into a great position sitting right off Simplification. 

As long as he remains double digits, Howling Time should offer the right odds for a win and place bet. His ability was shown last year, and the fast workouts indicate the connections want to win. Whether a single bet on Howling Time is made or not, though, think about including Howling Time, Simplification and Emmanuel in horizontals and search elsewhere in the ticket for a single.

Win/place: 3 (at 10-1 or higher)