Analysis: Long Range Toddy's the best Ohio Derby option

With the scratch of Global Campaign, the Grade 3, $500,000 Ohio Derby becomes a slightly more difficult betting contest. My original idea was to go against him, as the race features two cheap speed horses in Going for Gold and Dare Day, and another legitimate front-runner in Bethlehem Road.

The latter three speed horses figured to make Global Campaign’s pace scenario a nightmare, giving the edge to stalkers or closers.

The latter point remains true, but Owendale and Long Range Toddy both figure to start the race at 2-1 or less without Global Campaign's presence, eliminating much of this race's value.

In any case, moving forward Long Range Toddy is preferred of the two.

Long Range Toddy started his 2019 campaign in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park, where he only lost by a neck to Gray Attempt. Considering Gray Attempt enjoyed an uncontested lead, Long Range Toddy ran well.

Next, he ran a good third in the Southwest Stakes (G3). Visually, it looked like the pace collapsed with the initial leaders Gray Attempt and Jersey Agenda fading to 11th and eighth. Long Range Toddy followed them in fourth, only two lengths behind, and he had nowhere to go around the far turn. He arguably was going to finish higher.

Long Range Toddy was eligible to rebound in the Rebel Stakes (G2), and he saved ground before mowing down Improbable.

Notice how Long Range Toddy allowed Classy John and Galilean to pass him on the backside, and he still came back later on. It evidences Long Range Toddy’s professionalism, which is a nice quality in a stakes horse.

As for the Arkansas Derby (G1) fade to sixth by 14 lengths, well, that is a head scratcher. He let Omaha Beach pass him after the first turn, and then Improbable on the backside. For a few moments, it looked like Long Range Toddy would rejoin them on the far turn, but he came up empty.

Trainer Steve Asmussen gives him a pass because of the sloppy track. If that is true, then Long Range Toddy’s sharp fade in the Kentucky Derby is excused as well.

Not only did Long Range Toddy deal with the slop at Churchill Downs, but the pacesetter Maximum Security's veer through the far turn greatly impacted his momentum.

Long Range Toddy was not going to win, but the incident likely cost him a higher placing. It is difficult to measure the mental toll of getting stopped.

In this far easier spot, Long Range Toddy can rebound. As long as Owendale goes off favored, Long Range Toddy is my choice.

Why will Owendale hold the favoritism role, though? He finished third in the Preakness Stakes, so casual bettors are bound to latch on to a well-known closer.

Some handicappers believe the inside was biased and Owendale overcame it. But I consider the rail bias on the Preakness card debatable.

Owendale backed up his winning Lexington Stakes (G3) speed figure when registering a 120 from TimeformUS at Keeneland and a 119 in completing the Preakness trifecta. His previous numbers on TimeformUS were below par.

To cast some doubt on the Preakness' quality, however, look at how poorly the winner War of Will and runner-up Everfast ran in the Belmont three weeks later. Ninth-place Signalman finished second in the Matt Winn Stakes (G3) over the weekend at Churchill Downs, but he never threatened the winner. Eleventh-place Alwaysmining ran a troubled third in the Easy Goer Stakes on Belmont Stakes day, though he never looked like a winner, either.

Owendale possesses talent, but there's enough here to play against with Long Range Toddy. If he starts at even money or lower in the Ohio Derby, consider that an opportunity.

Math Wizard is one alternative to those two short prices, but his efforts at nine furlongs are questionable. In both the Oaklawn Invitational and Wood Memorial Stakes (G2), he put himself in good position and stalled.

Perhaps he can luck into a win if both Long Range Toddy and Owendale misfire, but that is not likely.

As for the expected pacesetter Bethlehem Road, he does own some visible talent. In the Parx Spring Derby, he not only repelled a bid from Fix Me a Sandwich on the far turn, but he also held off Mount Travers late and won.

It will not come as a surprise if he wins, but as mentioned above, Going for Gold and Dare Day are present and may burn him on the pace.

If Going for Gold or Dare Day scratch, then move up Bethlehem Road.

Otherwise, Long Range Toddy is the logical choice. He owns enough tactical speed to stay within range early, and he does not need to duel.

Assuming Long Range Toddy is 8-5 or higher, then the play is Long Range Toddy to win and a straight Long Range Toddy over Math Wizard (or Bethlehem Road) exacta. For example, $20 win on 3 and a $25 3/1 exacta.

In horizontal wagers, Owendale deserves a spot on tickets along with Long Range Toddy. Either Math Wizard or Bethlehem Road work as Cs.