Analysis: Key Dunbar Road over longer Mother Goose prices

Without a strong reason to side against Dunbar Road, the Grade 2, $250,000 Mother Goose Stakes on Saturday at Belmont Park may not look playable at first glance. But it depends on both the favorite's final price and wagering strategy.

Betting is not always about tossing low prices. Rather, the bettor needs to decide what are acceptable odds in relation to the horse’s ability and use a good strategy. Only last week, I predicted the Mia Mischief-Awestruck exacta in the Roxelana Stakes, which paid $49.60 for $2.

Mia Mischief started at 8-5, which were fair odds given her ability and allowed a small win bet to cover the exacta in case Awestruck did not fire.

In the Mother Goose, Dunbar Road owns the top TimeformUS Speed Figure at 114, which she earned in her recent 5 ½ length allowance win over the same course.

Also, the 108 Dunbar Road earned when runner-up in the Gulfstream Oaks (G2) is the third-highest figure. She had legitimate excuses to lose, as she had to close on a speed-biased dirt track off a slow pace.

The eventual winner, Champagne Anyone, chased in second, and that filly got first run in attacking the pacesetter Cookie Dough after slow fractions.

As Champagne Anyone took command of the lead, Irad Ortiz tipped out Dunbar Road for a clear shot and she moved nicely in the last few strides. 

But it was too late for Dunbar Road. The fourth-place finisher Point of Honor went on to capture the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) at Pimlico, which flatters Dunbar Road because she outkicked Point of Honor in the lane.

As for the pace setup in the Mother Goose, it is not a huge concern. If Safta goes for the lead like in her last start and tries to put the field to sleep, Dunbar Road will sit close enough. She will find mowing down Safta easier than Champagne Anyone or Cookie Dough.

If Safta or Jeltrin go too fast up front, Dunbar Road can lay off.

Dunbar Road owns the best speed and versatility. Without a major hole in this Chad Brown-trained filly, she is the top selection and playable at even money or higher, if using her as the key on top of value prices underneath.

Horse Racing Nation's Matt Shifman projects Safta at 30-1 in his Mother Goose odds and analysis. If that price holds, she's a great value.

As with Dunbar Road and Point of Honor, Safta did not get the right pace in the Gulfstream Oaks after setting in fourth and inside. The disappointing part is that Safta never closed, while those two fillies gained ground.

But at 30-1, that part is forgivable. Safta got no pace again in her runner-up effort in a local April 26 maiden race, but she broke through on May 30 with a sharp win over the slop where she contested the lead and stayed there.

Note how TimeformUS marked every fraction in the May 30 race in red -- fast. While it came on slop, there is not enough evidence yet to discount this filly on dry dirt. No matter Safta's odds, if the Dunbar Road over Safta exacta combination is highest or second highest, then she is worth including.  

On the same projected HRN line, the next highest horse is Cassies Dreamer, who won a local optional claimer over the slop. But Cassies Dreamer’s only two good races came over off tracks, while she has appeared flat otherwise.

If by some chance it rains, Cassies Dreamer is useful. Otherwise, she is a pass.

The remaining three fillies are Jeltrin, Wings of Dawn and Classic Fit.

Jeltrin closed for third in the Acorn Stakes (G1). But she also received an incredible pace with Serengeti Empress and Cookie Dough flying. Unless the exacta payout is higher than expected, I prefer to pass.

Classic Fit won three times in her 2-year-old season, but the numbers are low. In the Hut Hut Stakes at Gulfstream, TimeformUS only gave Classic Fit an 87 speed figure for winning. Before that, she earned a 75 (on synthetic), 83 and 80.

It's unfair to compare 2-year-old figures to current speed figures in this division, but those numbers still seem too low.

Wings of Dawn is interesting, as she only shows synthetic and turf races on record. On Woodbine’s Tapeta surface, she is 2-for-2.

From a pedigree standpoint, there is no reason Wings of Dawn should not handle dirt. Medaglia d’Oro is fine as a dirt sire, while Wings of Dawn’s dam, Juanita, won the 2011 Indiana Oaks (G2) and 2012 La Troienne Stakes (G2).

Without any dirt form, the public may ignore Wings of Dawn, which means she works as the second inclusion underneath and alongside Safta.

If Dunbar Road starts at even money or higher, she is playable over those fillies as long as the payouts look appealing.

Here is the suggested ticket with a $40 budget:   

$20 Win – 1

$12 Exacta – 1 / 6

$8 Exacta – 1 / 3

In these kinds of situations, the bettor needs to risk more than the minimum, going heavier on the lower-priced combination. It may not look appealing when the expected exacta payouts are below $50, but if the expected payout for a $1 exacta combination is $20 and the bettor hits it for $10, that is a $200 return. It only takes some creativity to make it work.

For those playing horizontally, Dunbar Road works as a single, too, although it does not hurt to throw in Wings of Dawn as a B or C, just in case.

As a final note, the public might try to “bridgejump” Dunbar Road. If there is $100,000 or more on Dunbar Road to show, then bet a different filly to show and hope Dunbar Road finishes out of the money. It can always happen.