Analysis: Justify still the one to beat on Triple Crown trail

Although Justify did not dominate the 2018 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course, he captured the Triple Crown's middle jewel and will go on to Belmont Park with history on the line. The colt won by a half length over the late-closing Bravazo and Tenfold for trainer Bob Baffert, who went down this path three years ago.

Already, there's conversation about why Justify did not dominate the field. But given how the race's opening stages played out, it's worth considering he had a tough scenario.

Good Magic’s rider, jockey Jose Ortiz, delivered on his pre-race promise to turn the Preakness into a match race situation. Instead of sparring with Diamond King or Sporting Chance for the lead, Justify faced Kentucky Derby runner-up Good Magic early. The duo clicked off fractions of 23.11 and 47.19. 

Which horse led through those fractions? The fog made it hard to tell as they ran head and head. The point is, Justify faced a quality horse from an early stage in the race. 

While 23.11 and 47.19 don't appear fast, for a 9.5-furlong race, it is a not the slowest tempo. The standard fast and slow fractions do not apply to all distances. For example, if the horses open in 23.11 or faster in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes, that might be considered blazing.

For the Preakness distance on a sloppy racetrack, 23.11 and 47.19 can be considered moderate at least, depending on how the pace figures turn out. 

Bravazo chased them a few lengths back in third, while Quip raced on the inside in fourth. After them came Tenfold and Diamond King, followed Lone Sailor and Sporting Chance, whose lack of speed was surprising. 

The turn for home was still difficult to see because of the fog, but Justify and Good Magic still seemed to be dueling up front. From what is visible, they appeared to separate from the field, which is a positive sign about quality of the race.

No matter what the criticisms are, Justify and Good Magic still did all the work on the pace, and if they put some distance on third-place Bravazo even for a brief while, then both of them did serious running. Again, the fog makes it hard to see, but they seemed to open up a little.

In any case, the six-furlong fraction went in 1:11.42. Comparing raw numbers from different days is a terrible practice. But to compare the six-furlong point to American Pharoah’s 2015 Preakness, ironically he went in 1:11.42 as well.

To give credit to American Pharoah, the opening quarter and half mile from his run are faster, as he set the pace in 22.90 and 46.49, plus did it over an open track taking on water. Saturday's surface was sealed.

Toward the end of the stretch, Good Magic faded just a bit on the inside, while Justify continued on. Tenfold passed Good Magic, and moments later Bravazo did the same when he makes his final bid. Lone Sailor appeared.

Does anyone believe Tenfold and Bravazo are better than Good Magic? 

Either Justify and Good Magic turned in subpar efforts, or Tenfold and Bravazo took advantage of the pace. I believe the latter, especially because the deep closing Lone Sailor managed to show up on screen.

Some might argue the Pimlico track favored speed all day, but that can be argued against. Sure, Ax Man won the Sir Barton Stakes on the pace one race earlier, but he came into the race for Baffert with a 130 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Switzerland won the Maryland Sprint Stakes (G3), and he owned high speed figures too. Mitole looked dominant going into the Chick Lang Stakes as well. In other words, the speed horses had logical reasons to win with that style.

Another discussion point is whether or not Justify is tired. The Preakness was Justify’s fifth race since February, and he got thrown into Grade 1 competition in his third lifetime start. Then he won the Kentucky Derby a month later, and got wheeled back in two weeks for the Preakness.

Horses usually get more time. Justify will enjoy three weeks between now and the Belmont Stakes.

When it comes down to it, no horse has finished ahead of Justify yet. Whether or not the pace or final times are fast or slow, he is undefeated and owns two legs of the Triple Crown while on the pace. 

While Justify’s Preakness small-margin win makes the Belmont more interesting to follow from a betting standpoint, this is not a horse who can be easily dismissed. 

He is still the one to beat June 9 in New York.