Analysis: Can Jack Christopher handle Haskell distance?

Deciding whether Jack Christopher can handle 1 1/8 miles and two turns in the Grade 1, $1 million Haskell Stakes on Saturday at Monmouth is not a simple task as a handicapper. 

From purely a talent standpoint, Jack Christopher offers plenty of it. This colt is 4 for 4, with all his races at a mile or less. Plus, he has had his lead reduced from the stretch to the finish in only one start.

Here is a quick recap of his four races to this point. 

Last August, Jack Christopher broke his maiden in a six-furlong Saratoga maiden race by 10 3/4 lengths after leading by 3 1/2 lengths in the stretch.

One start later, Jack Christopher won the one-turn mile Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont by 2 3/4 lengths after leading by 5 1/2 lengths in the stretch. This time, Jack Christopher did not increase the margin. To his credit, the runner-up Commandperformance ran the best race of his odd career and put a good seven lengths on the third-place finisher Wit.

When Jack Christopher came back in the Pat Day Mile (G2) on the Kentucky Derby undercard, he again increased his winning margin from the stretch to finish line by finishing 3 3/4 lengths ahead of Pappacap at the wire after leading by only one length in the stretch.

Then in the seven-furlong Woody Stephens Stakes (G1) at Belmont last month, Jack Christopher won by an impressive 10 lengths over Pappacap after leading by “only” four lengths ahead of the pacesetter Provocateur in the stretch.

Jack Christopher increased his winning margin in the stretch in three of four races, which works as a good sign for his chances to stretch out to nine furlongs here. The one knock is that the explosive margins came at six and seven furlongs.

Pappacap is useful as a measuring stick. Jack Christopher beat Pappacap by only three lengths in the Pat Day Mile and then by an eye-opening 10 lengths at seven furlongs in the Woody Stephen Stakes. Maybe the bigger margin in the latter race is partially because of the cutback.

To counter that argument, Jack Christopher also made his second start off the bench in the Woody Stephens and had a right to improve. As written constantly on this blog, most horses improve in their second start off the bench and peak in their third start back. 

As for Jack Christopher’s pedigree, it is not ideal for nine furlongs.

Jack Christopher’s sire Munnings works better as a sire of sprinters and milers. Munnings’ top five progeny by earnings this year are Jack Christopher, Zozos, Dash Attack, Sir Alfred James and Beverly Park. Besides Jack Christopher, Sir Alfred James and Beverly Park are sprinters.

Jack Christopher’s dam Rushin No Blushin is a half-sister to Street Boss, a talented sprinter in his day who ran in the trifecta 11 of 13 times.        

The damsire Half Ours won his first five career starts at distances up to a one-turn mile. Then, he ran second as the favorite in the 1 1/16-mile Alysheba Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs before finishing off the board in the Metropolitan Handicap (G1) to end his career on a low point.

In other words, Jack Christopher’s pedigree leans towards elongated sprints, or one-mile races at most. But many talented horses overcome their pedigrees and win races at longer distances than what their bloodlines say. If Jack Christopher breaks clean and settles into a comfortable rhythm setting the pace, anything could happen.

But given that Jack Christopher is unproven at nine furlongs and lacks an obvious pedigree for the distance, bettors might want to use caution.