Analysis: Is there any way Brown loses Jenny Wiley Stakes?

Value seekers might balk at playing the Grade 1, $500,000 Jenny Wiley Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday. Trainer Chad Brown enters two runners at low odds in Shantisara and Regal Glory, and there is no viable alternative unless one of the speed horses scratches.

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Here is a short recap of the recent starts from Shantisara and Regal Glory.  

Shantisara returns off a 182-day layoff. When last seen, Shantisara won the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) on this course in October by an impressive five lengths. 

Shantisara came across as a star in this dominating win.

Two starts ago, Shantisara also won the Jockey Club Oaks Invitational Stakes in September at Belmont on firm turf.

Regal Glory did make one start this year in the Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf Invitational Stakes, where she won by 2 ½ lengths at Gulfstream. Last December, Regal Glory also won the Matriarch Stakes (G1) at Del Mar by the same margin. Despite her older age, Regal Glory still looks sharp. She has only missed the trifecta three times in 17 starts.

Shantisara runs as either a stalker or midpack type, while Regal Glory brings some versatility to the table as she can set the pace or lag towards the rear.

Flavien Prat takes the mount on Shantisara, and no rider is hotter in turf racing than him. The capable Jose Ortiz retains the mount on Regal Glory.

If bettors must single one horse, Shantisara holds a slight edge because of Prat and her recent success on this course last October.

If it rains, Shantisara gains an even wider edge. Shantisara’s only loss on wet turf came in her career debut back as a 2-year-old filly in France. Last year, she won the Pucker Up Stakes (G3) at Arlington Park on good turf by three lengths and the aforementioned Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup by five lengths on yielding turf.

For bettors with room to use two horses in multi-race wagers, both Shantisara and Regal Glory can win. Unfortunately, Shantisara is 6/5 on the morning line and Regal Glory is 7/5, making the race extremely unappealing.

The only chance for an upset is if either Navratilova or Lady Speightspeare scratches. If one or the other defects, it would leave the other uncontested on the lead and open up a slight chance for a steal on the front end.

Lady Speightspeare’s most recent start is noteworthy because she tried to press an extremely fast pace in the Hillsboro Stakes (G2) at Tampa Bay and posted high TimeformUS Pace Figures of 166 and 166 before fading to fourth late.

On the downside for Lady Speightspeare, trainer Roger Attfield tends to struggle at Keeneland. TimeformUS gives Attfield an 11 rating at this track, and he also shows a dismal 0 for 5 record at Keeneland over the past year.

The only other horse that could attract some attention is Waliyak in Post 2, and she does not look that appealing after finishing fourth in the E.P. Taylor Stakes (G1) at Woodbine last October with no excuse. In the stretch run, Waliyak had every opportunity to win the race.  

Unless the field changes, Shantisara and Regal Glory are the only two horses to use. On yielding turf, consider singling Shantisara. Only move up Navratilova or Lady Speightspeare if the other scratches and sets up an paceless scenario.