Iroquois analysis: Alternative to Damon's Mound, Echo Again

Bettors face some tough decisions in the Grade 3, $300,000 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs on Saturday.

Two talented colts in Damon’s Mound and Echo Again will attract plenty of money thanks to their recent flashy wins, but the switch to a two-turn route might make one or both vulnerable. Perhaps there is another viable option to win.

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Before going into the third option though, here is a slight recap of why the public will bet Damon’s Mound and Echo Again enthusiastically.

Damon’s Mound graduated in a local maiden race July 2 by an impressive 12 1/2 lengths with a 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

Nevertheless, Damon’s Mound won by 3 1/4 lengths with a 105 on TimeformUS. Gulfport did try to make up ground late in the stretch, but Damon’s Mound’s built up an advantage too large by then to get caught.

Damon’s Mound sports an unfashionable pedigree, making it hard to analyze him terms of route potential. In addition, trainer Michelle Novell is not on the big stage often. Damon's Mound will remain popular though at the windows.

As for Echo Again, he only shows one start at Saratoga on Aug. 20.

In that one start, Echo Again set the pace through mild fractions before pulling clear in the stretch under some urging to win by 6 3/4 lengths with a field-high 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Visually, his win looks impressive.

TimeformUS initially gave Echo Again a raw 115 speed figure. Because of the slow pace though, his 115 final figure became knocked down to the 109. In other words, not even a slow pace adjustment could stop Echo Again from earning a high speed figure, at least on TimeformUS.

Echo Again might start at lower odds than Damon's Mound, making it hard to bet the chicken farm on him without that evidence he can route. 

Now to discuss the third and most value-oriented option, Curly Jack.

Curly Jack makes his fourth career start after a strong runner-up finish in the seven-furlong Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes.

After switching to rating tactics for the first time and racing three lengths behind the leaders through the opening quarter mile in 22.13 seconds, Curly Jack made his move on the outside while approaching the turn. The half-mile went in 45.24 seconds, which TimeformUS labels as a fast fraction.

Curly Jack went on to fight a stubborn Top Recruit in the stretch as the duo separated from the rest of the field to battle. Top Recruit won by a head at the wire, but Curly Jack did put 14 3/4 lengths on Roman Giant. The big margin to Roman Giant acts as a good sign of a quality effort.

Curly Jack earned a 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which puts him ahead of Damon’s Mound. He is still behind Echo Again’s 109, but the difference is not insurmountable if he can take another step forward.

From a pedigree standpoint, there is no reason Curly Jack cannot route. This is a son of 2018 Kentucky Derby runner-up Good Magic out of the mare Connie and Michael, who ran second in the 2010 Mother Goose Stakes (G1).

Why did Curly Jack fade in the Sanford Stakes (G2) two starts ago? He tried to set the pace in that race and could not keep up late. Maybe switching to rating tactics in the Ellis Park race helped him progress with his best effort.

Trainer Tom Amoss knows how to win big races, but the public does not necessarily bet him blindly unless the horse picks up steam with wins.  

At 9/2 or higher, Curly Jack is the best horse for a win or place bet. In multi-race wagers though, bettors might want to back up with all three runners.

Win/place: 5