Analysis: Instilled Regard the right value in Pennsylvania Derby

Nearly the entire field holds an argument for winning the Grade 1, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby on Saturday at Parx Racing, and that will make betting the race a difficult task. For that reason, it is more important than ever to look for value.

Using the morning line, it seems like the obvious value selection is the 15-1 Instilled Regard, who comes into this race off a layoff after finishing fourth in the Kentucky Derby. Since then, he also switched trainers from Jerry Hollendorfer to Chad Brown.

Instilled Regard went off at 85-1 at Churchill Downs, but at one time the public held high regard for this horse. After crossing the wire a close third in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) last December, people talked about him as a serious Derby contender.

He kicked off his 2018 campaign by winning the Lecomte Stakes (G3) by more than three lengths, and the bandwagon still held plenty of followers. But then Instilled Regard turned in an even-looking fourth at 7/5 in the Risen Star (G2).

This race can be cross-examined.

For one, the race was run in merry-go-round fashion. Snapper Sinclair and Bravazo went up front, and both horses remained in their positions until Bravazo finally nosed him out. Instilled Regard chased outside, but the race dynamics did not favor him.

Instilled Regard did not even run so bad. He only lost by a little over two lengths, while just losing third by a neck to Noble Indy on the inside. It can certainly be forgiven. 

He then came into the Santa Anita Derby as the third choice, going off at 5-1 against the rising superstar Justify and top challenger Bolt d’Oro. 

Critics can make more of a fuss over this effort, as he could only close for a disappointing fourth. But the third-place runner who beat him, Core Beliefs, turned out just fine. Bettors just did not know the eventual Grade 3 winner Core Beliefs back then, so he went off at a high 41-1.

Of course, Instilled Regard rallied for fourth in the Kentucky Derby after future sprint star Promises Fulfilled set a supersonic pace with Justify flanking him. 

Later on, Justify went on to achieve immortality. 

Instilled Regard received a pace setup and failed to hit the Top 3, but that can be forgiven considering Justify won. Traffic trouble happens in a 20-horse field.

Assuming he really goes off at double-digit odds in the Pennsylvania Derby, that is a generous price. Instilled Regard is my top choice, with some questions over the morning line accuracy.

McKinzie actually finished in front of Instilled Regard at Los Alamitos, and many ranked this one as Bob Baffert’s best 3-year-old after subsequent wins in the Sham Stakes (G3) and San Felipe Stakes (G2). He out-dueled Bolt d’Oro in the latter race, only to get taken down in a controversial and unpopular disqualification for his only loss.

The son of Street Sense then went on the shelf, but Baffert brings back his horses ready to win. If McKinzie needed a race, he would not be running in this spot.

His price will be low, because it is a Baffert colt with a sharp record. Another knock is the expected pace scenario, as McKinzie will take heat from Mr Freeze and Trigger Warning. If one of those speed horses scratch, though, then move up McKinzie.

Next on the contender list is Hofburg, and he is hard to like as a wagering prospect given his popularity, although as a counterpoint he did go off at 27-1 in the Kentucky Derby.

Hofburg has talent, as he finished second in the Florida Derby (G1) to Audible, seventh in the Kentucky Derby (which can be counted as decent), and third in the Belmont Stakes to Triple Crown champion Justify. He also won the Curlin Stakes last out at Saratoga.

Although this is a pace-reliant horse when facing Grade 1 competition, luckily the Pace Projector believes there will be a setup waiting for him. Unlike McKinzie, this runner will benefit from the presence of Mr Freeze, Trigger Warning, and hopefully other speed.

If the heat up front develops, there is no doubt Hofburg can win. But without a superstar like Justify to balance out the odds, he will probably offer no real value.

On the other hand, Bravazo may creep up past 6-1 on the tote board once wagering opens. Here is a horse with a frustrating pattern.

In four out of his last five races, including the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Haskell Stakes (G1) and Travers (G1), he lost ground on the far turn before coming on again in the stretch. It is definitely not a habit conducive to winning.

Nevertheless, Bravazo is a solid horse to throw in underneath, and if he somehow loses this habit and keeps pace on the turn, he can also post his first Grade 1 win.

There is also the Dale Romans duo of King Zachary and the aforementioned Mr Freeze. What makes these two runners difficult is the lack of consistency in their form. It feels like either of them can pop up with a big number or fold. 

If King Zachary repeats his Matt Winn Stakes (G3) 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure, he can win, but in two subsequent starts he failed to break 120. As for Mr Freeze, his 124 in the West Virginia Derby (G3) was well above his previous high of 112.

With only four starts, Mr Freeze owns more upside.

Core Beliefs is in with a chance, too, and a poor start affected his chances in the Haskell last time out. He bobbled at the break and came from nine lengths back to reach third on the rail before flattening out to fourth and a little over 10 back.

With a better break this time, Core Beliefs can get first run on the leaders. 

The same can be said as well for Axelrod, who comes into this race off a win in the local Smarty Jones Stakes. He looked professional waiting for room and exploding.

Axelrod is one of those horses who could be developing nicely at the right time. His odds of 5-1 are low. It seems almost as if he was mixed up with Instilled Regard. If his price creeps up toward a more reasonable 8-1 or 9-1, then take a closer look. 

First Mondays, a son of Curlin, closed for third in the Smarty Jones and should not be discounted as a future stakes horse who could make noise as a 4-year-old colt. But the Pennsylvania Derby feels too soon. Limit him to underneath slots for now and watch.

Trigger Warning only lost by a length to Core Beliefs in the Ohio Derby (G3), and by a head to Axelrod in the Indiana Derby (G3). What happened in the Travers, though, to lead to a sixth-place effort?

Instilled Regard is my main choice, followed by McKinzie, Hofburg and Bravazo. But this is a hard race to handicap, and no one should talk themselves out of any horse who appeals to them in this competitive spot. The right play may be to key Instilled Regard in the first and second slots in trifecta wheels -- just one suggestion out of many possibilities.