Analysis: Instagrand talented, but still needs to prove himself

Promising 2-year-old star Instagrand sat on the sidelines for Jerry Hollendorfer while Game Winner captured the Del Mar Futurity (G1) on Monday, but the reaction on social media feeds was as if Instagrand “won.” The most hyped juvenile in training continues to generate enthusiasm among fans, and for good reason. 

Instagrand powered home to an easy 10-length maiden win at Los Alamitos to start off his career, earning an 88 Beyer Speed Figure and 112 on TimeformUS. 

On the far turn, jockey Drayden Van Dyke let a trio of challengers gather on Instagrand’s side. But once asked, Instagrand took off like they were nothing. 

To back up the sparkling effort, Instagrand impressed observers again in the Best Pal Stakes (G2) at Del Mar next month. 

This time, the son of Into Mischief took some early pressure from an expensive Flashback colt named Owning, and once again, Instagrand powered home by 10. The move left Owning devastated, as he faded back to fourth by over 13 lengths. 

Instagrand improved to a 92 Beyer Speed Figure and dropped to a 109 on TimeformUS. If that sounds strange, the two figure makers do not always agree. Nevertheless, both numbers are high for a 2-year-old on their respective scales.   

From those two races, it is hard to deny Instagrand is a very talented sprinter. Visually, he looks like a push-button horse who can take off at any second. 

But is Instagrand the best overall 2-year-old dirt runner, with the highest potential to succeed going forward in two-turn dirt races? That is a difficult question.   

For starters, Game Winner’s 93 Beyer Speed Figure for winning the Del Mar Futurity is faster than Instagrand’s Best Pal win. It is slightly unfair to compare the two races because they were a month apart.

Instagrand bypassed the Futurity, and while it is fair to speculate Instagrand would crush Game Winner, we won't really know until they meet Sept. 29 in Santa Anita's American Pharoah Stakes (G1).

Is Game Winner so far off anyway? He just defeated two nice runners in Rowayton and Roadster, earning him quality-of-competition credit. Rowayton is Instagrand’s stablemate in the Jerry Hollendorfer barn, and Roadster is Game Winner’s stablemate in the loaded Bob Baffert barn. Roadster was seen as the major threat to Instagrand. 

Furthermore, Game Winner ran like a horse who will love more distance. 

As seen above, Game Winner lacks Instagrand’s flashiness in the stretch run. But he still ground out the win in a steady fashion, and that is generally the kind of runner who loves to go longer because the energy will be expended efficiently over a route. 

Meanwhile, Instagrand is the type of horse to go from 0 to 100 in a very short amount of time. It is the kind of move that will more easily result in gasps and capture imaginations. However, the question remains whether a longer distance and two turns will dull out his sparkling move. Not every horse can be brilliant and versatile.  

For example, look at the late Takaful from the 2017 Derby trail. 

To start off his career, Takaful won a 6 1/2-furlong sprint at Belmont Park. He accomplished this in a similar fashion to Instagrand, only holding a two-length lead at four furlongs, but blowing open the race by eight lengths at the wire. 

The connections decided to give the Derby trail a shot, and they started him in the nine-furlong Remsen Stakes (G2). There, he failed to use his speed efficiently. 

Takaful opened up to a quick four-length lead, and looked like a run-off horse who could not relax. He did well enough to hold third in the stretch, but he was tired.

Afterward, Takaful finished seventh in the 2017 Jerome Stakes (G3) and eighth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) before attempts to make the Kentucky Derby were abandoned.

Once he returned to sprinting, Takaful won a Saratoga allowance impressively and finished a good second in the Allen Jerkens (G1) after setting a fast pace. He then took the Vosburgh (G1) at Belmont Park as his career highlight. 

Takaful was quite the one-turn horse. 

To go back to Instagrand, another concern is the competition in his first two races. He put away the Los Alamitos rivals like they were nothing because they were nothing. The runner-up No Treble has lost three times in a row since then, and fifth-place finisher Dark Prince has failed twice. Last-place Mr Bingley has lost four more times. 

Out of Instagrand’s Best Pal Stakes, the results are not any better. Runner-up Sparky Ville finished last in the Del Mar Futurity by 16 lengths, and Owning ran a non-threatening seventh in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf. Instagrand was not beating winners.

Even the public knew Sparky Ville was not up to par, as they let him go at 33-1. 

That's not to say Instagrand can't prove himself the exact same horse running two turns. Special horses are less likely to stick to handicapping trends and rules. 

The point of all this is, Instagrand is talented, but there is still a lot of racing to watch. This rising star needs to prove himself against better horses, and the speed figures say he is not miles better than the competition. He could be, though. Keep watching.