Analysis: Jerome's Independence Hall looks like no fluke

Given the extremely low odds of Independence Hall in the $150,000 Jerome Stakes on Wednesday at Aqueduct, it might seem worth taking a shot against him. But the difference in class between the favorite and the rest is too strong, negating the value of trying to beat the 1/5 favorite.

Independence Hall, of course, won the Nashua Stakes (G3) last time by 12 ¼ lengths over this course and distance. He earned a lofty 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure, 101 Beyer Speed Figure and 101 Bris Speed Rating.

Watch him press the pace and draw clear under his own power. 

Independence Hall put away a promising runner in Ashaar at the top of the stretch before pouring it on and giving Meru and Chase Tracker no chance. 

There is no reason to label Independence Hall's performance a fluke. He won by double-digit lengths without encouragement over fast dirt.

Meru previously took the Smoke Glacken Stakes at Monmouth with a 114 on the TimeformUS scale, while the third-place Chase Tracker returned in the Remsen Stakes (G2) to run third again, earning a 107 in the process.

Furthermore, TimeformUS does not code the Nashua in such a way that the card catered to a specific running style. They all had a chance at Independence Hall, who surprised that day entering as a debut winner at Parx Racing.

Now, Independence Hall, given time to rest, sees the same configuration against a weaker field. It's tough to imagine him losing

The morning line second choice Bourbon Bay earned a 97 on TimeformUS when closing for second by a neck in his local career debut and a 95 one month later on the same course while breaking his maiden by 2 ¼ lengths. Both starts came at sprint distances against fellow New York-breds.

Prince of Pharoahs scored a 95 when breaking his maiden at Belmont by five lengths, also against New York-breds. At least his race came over one mile.

Celtic Striker picked up an 87 when breaking his maiden at Monmouth Park in open company. He only competed in a six-furlong sprint.

The only other horse to even show a triple-digit TimeformUS figure is Dubai Bobby, who won a maiden claimer by 6 ¾ lengths over the Belmont Park turf with a 102.

Other horses in this race that broke their maiden in claimers are Inside Risk and Polar Bear Pete. The former went for $50,000 at Saratoga, while the latter competed with a $75,000 tag at Belmont. Then again, probable 3-year-old Eclipse Award winner Maximum Security broke his maiden in a claimer as well. But it's still unusual for owners to risk good horses in such company.

On paper, the Jerome looks like an odd collection of New York-breds, maiden claimers, and Independence Hall, a legitimate graded stakes horse with a big figure. Because Independence Hall is a lock to start at 1/5 or less, the race is essntially unplayable.

For those bettors who still want to bet this vertically, beating Bourbon Bay in the second slot is probably the only way to make money.

The main strike against Bourbon Bay is that his two races came in sprints. Sometimes when mid-pack runners or closers in sprint races stretch out, their late kick is dulled out by the longer distance because they get too tired to rally. While he could handle the one-turn mile, the value is not there.

Prince of Pharoahs is slightly more interesting at 8-1, as his win came over a one-turn mile at Belmont. He owns more speed than Bourbon Bay, and at least bettors know the distance is not a problem. While he set the pace in his maiden win, at this stage it is too early to say he cannot sit off horses.

For a mega longshot, the 30-1 Dubai Bobby is worth a look off that 102 figure on turf. His lone dirt start resulted in a seventh-place finish at Saratoga back in August, but that is forgivable given he lacked seasoning.

Dubai Bobby disappointed next time by failing to hit the board in a local Nov. 27 optional claimer. Trainer Chad Summers had claimed him off the big maiden claiming win, and he probably needed a race to get acquainted.

Independence Hall looks too good in the Jerome. Expect him to pick up his first 10 qualifying points toward the 2020 Kentucky Derby in a hand ride.

While there are better races on the card to bet, Prince of Pharoahs is the main second slot choice, while Dubai Bobby is an intriguing longshot.