What we learned: No shame in Game winner, Improbable losses

Before the two divisions of Saturday's Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park, it was nearly unthinkable that trainer Bob Baffert could lose with both Improbable and Game Winner. I considered Improbable the stronger of the two stars, but others felt Game Winner was the more reliable Baffert runner to take one of the Rebels.

Given their defeats, both in close finishes, there's further chaos in the 2019 Kentucky Derby picture.

Neither Improbable nor Game Winner ran poorly. Truly, I believe Improbable ran a strong race in the first division -- if his name was not Improbable.

The City Zip colt experienced a difficult, wide trip.

First, Improbable went four-wide on the first turn after breaking from Post 9. He continued wide on the backside while following Extra Hope, who moved prematurely to get the jump on Improbable. Then on the far turn, Improbable moved four-wide again.

In contrast, the eventual winner Long Range Toddy initially saved ground while showing speed, and then he remained inside into the far turn before switching out.

That's typically considered a perfect trip. And it's surely better than the one received by Improbably, who clearly did more work. 

Improbable ran second, but under trip handicapping rules, he ran the better race. 

Even though Improbable deserves slightly more credit, Long Range Toddy turned in a sharp effort to pick up the win, and he might still offer value next time, too.

As for the other division of the Rebel, Game Winner settled behind horses on the first turn before tipping out on the far side to take aim at Omaha Beach up front. 

Omaha Beach still held a noticeable advantage at the top of the stretch, but after some hard left-handed strikes, Game Winner began to mow him down in the last few strides.

It was too late. Omaha Beach earned the head bob and won the second Rebel.

Did anyone catch Captain Von Trapp’s quick move on the outside as well? For a few moments on the far turn, it looked like the 48-1 shot was going to threaten the favorites. As fast as he rolled up behind the leaders, he faded in the stretch to finish sixth. 

Stablemate Laughing Fox ran seventh, but did absolutely no running.

In any case, Game Winner did not disgrace himself in loss, while Omaha Beach proved he could duplicate his nine-length maiden win on a fast track and two turns. Considering his half-sister Take Charge Brandi, it makes sense that routing is up Omaha Beach's alley.

Given Omaha Beach did more running in the initial stages and in early stretch, he ran a few lengths better than Game Winner too, even if the margin ended up smaller.

Gunmetal Gray ran third, and his problem is not the distance. He only needs a pace collapse to set up his run, and with that, he could win races as short as a mile.

Elate needed the race

The standout Oaklawn card also featured the Azeri Stakes (G2) for older fillies and mares as Midnight Bisou, Shamrock Rose and Elate’s all clashed.

Pacesetter Tapa Tapa Tapa once defeated Elate in early 2017, but she clearly did not develop much further than that. After a comfortable lead in 24.51 and 48.81, the Tapit filly conceded the front to Shamrock Rose, and then folded back to fourth.

Shamrock Rose hit the front first before the two favorites. Her distance limitations possibly showed, though, as she let Midnight Bisou slip by her, and then Elate. While Shamrock Rose won route races at Presque Isle Downs and Woodbine, those wins came against questionable competition. She looks better as a closing sprinter.

Midnight Bisou turned in her usual effort, and Elate needed one race off the layoff.

In her last 2018 start back in August, Elate earned a 131 TimeformUS Speed Figure when second in the Personal Ensign Stakes (G1) to Abel Tasman, who suddenly lost form after the race. Perhaps the layoff Elate took helped her avoid the same fate.

Late closer Eskimo Kisses remained in last the entire race. Without enough pace, she was unable to make an impact, and deserves another chance from bettors should these horses meet again in the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1).

Monomoy Girl's bro comes up short

Cowboy Diplomacy, the full-brother to Monomoy Girl, competed in Race 3 on Saturday at Oaklawn. For a while he positioned well, but then he stalled in the stretch run as Proverb won.

Given his famous sibling, route distances should not pose a problem. But for whatever reason, he fails to make up any ground toward the finish line.

With a horse like this offering almost zero late kick, putting him in front sooner might prove beneficial as he can gain a sizable enough margin to not need a late rally.

Think about Omaha Beach's improved route effort in the Rebel, as he did not stall. In previous route races, Omaha Beach always had trouble closing the deal. But with an aggressive rider in Mike Smith, he cleared the field early and did enough to win.

Then again, some horses settle into a preferred running style and cannot change.

Weary of this group

Kudos to Rated R Superstar for picking up the win in the Essex Handicap by a slim margin over Snapper Sinclair and Giant Expectations.

His name is a reference to WWE Hall of Famer Edge, right?

Looking forward, however, the first five finishers were only separated by a little less than two lengths. Clustered finishes are not a good sign when betting that group back in a race like the Oaklawn Handicap (G2).