Analysis: Narrow the Breeders' Cup Classic to 4 win contenders
On paper, Saturday's $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park is the most wide-open edition in years. Without any major superstars on the level of recent winners like Arrogate, Gun Runner or even Accelerate, almost every horse entered holds at least a small chance.
But I've narrowed my list of potential victors to four -- Higher Power, McKinzie, Owendale and Code of Honor -- and will discuss how each fits into the 1 1/4-mile feature.
He stumbled at the start of the 1 1/8-mile Awesome Again Stakes (G1), his final prep for the Breeders' Cup. Because of that, he traveled buried in a compact group.
For most of the race, Higher Power ran behind Mongolian Groom and Isotherm, and in between Draft Pick, Seeking the Soul and McKinzie.
Higher Power's rider, Flavien Prat, began to scrub on him around the far turn. But Higher Power did not accelerate along with Mongolian Groom and McKinzie. Rather, he ran one-paced for the entire stretch run.
But at least Higher Power held third over a known closer in Seeking the Soul.
Two races ago in the 1 1/4-mile Pacific Classic (G1), Higher Power started better and managed to secure a pressing position next to Quip. From there, Higher Power put away Quip on the far turn and surprisingly opened up on Draft Pick and Mongolian Groom. He won by 5 ¼ lengths.
For the Pacific Classic win, Higher Power earned only a 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Beyer assigned a 107 on that scale, which roughly equals a 127 on TimeformUS. If the 107 is accurate, it puts him right in the Breeders' Cup Classic mix.
Higher Power's pedigree also signals that longer is better on top, with Medaglia d'Oro and the Seattle Slew mare Alternate on the bottom. Alternate won the 1 3/8-mile Robert G. Dick Memorial Breeders' Cup Handicap twice.
Given a better start at 1 1/4 miles, Higher Power can pull off a mild upset here.
Despite disappointing in the Awesome Again, McKinzie gets the second slot here. And with bettors jumping ship, his 3-1 morning line odds could hold.
McKinzie broke on top in the Awesome Again before Mike Smith elected to rate and allow Mongolian Groom and Isotherm to cross over.
Smith then guided McKinzie wide on purpose and followed those two horses in the clear. Meanwhile, Mongolian Groom enjoyed an easy winning formula, established a comfortable lead on slow fractions.
Approaching the far turn, McKinzie lost ground before Smith asked him to move again. He responded. McKinzie rallied within range of Mongolian Groom, but Mongolian Groom repelled the bid and drew clear late.
What if McKinzie had been sent to the lead instead of rating wide? The negative part about racing inside is taking dirt behind horses. But without traffic and only mild outside pressure, it's not a bad trip.
Two starts ago, McKinzie won the Whitney Stakes (G1) in a powerful performance by 1 3/4 lengths over Yoshida. It was another 4 3/4 lengths to Vino Rosso. For the win at Saratoga, McKinzie earned a 129 TimeformUS Speed Figure, a number that would capture this weak edition of the Classic.
For a double-digit longshot, it is hard to go wrong here.
This 3-year-old rose to prominence with a victory in the Lexington Stakes (G3) in April and a made another wide rally in the Preakness Stakes one month later to pick up third. He then won the Ohio Derby (G3) over Math Wizard.
After gaining momentum in that stretch, Owendale took a shot at the Travers Stakes (G1) and ran an even fifth while racing on a dead rail.
But Owendale recovered in the Oklahoma Derby (G3) to win in a visually impressive effort. Watch him make a wide, early move and sustain the bid.
Considering the aggressive mid-race move, the winning margin of 1 ¾ lengths is better than it appears. It is also notable that Grade 1-placed Mucho Gusto ran fourth.
Owendale possesses enough speed to stay within range in midpack.
Granted, he needs one more step forward. But as a sophomore colt on the upswing, it's not difficult to imagine him reaching the next level.
This is another 3-year-old on the upswing, as his wins since the Triple Crown series in the Dwyer Stakes (G3), Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) prove.
In the latter victory, he took the win over Vino Rosso by a controversial disqualification after some light brushing in the stretch run. Both horses still earned 128 TimeformUS Speed Figures, not far off McKinzie's best.
As for the Travers win, Code of Honor picked up a 125 after a strong outside rally to mow down tired horses in Tacitus and Mucho Gusto on the lead.
There are no more questions about Code of Honor getting 1 ¼ miles after two straight wins at the distance. But the lack of a true Breeders' Cup Classic pacesetter hurts his closing style.
Although War of Will will likely vie for the lead from Post 4 with added blinkers, he is not a true pacesetter in the vein of Bayern or Game on Dude. With tactical speed names such as McKinzie, Higher Power and Vino Rosso slated to follow War of Will, it is difficult to see a fast pace unfolding.
But good horses such as Code of Honor sometimes find a way to overcome an unfavorable pace scenario. If he wins, it will not come as a surprise.
Without a doubt, the Classic is a difficult race to handicap and narrow down. But Higher Power, McKinzie, Owendale and Code of Honor look best leaving the post position draw.
Higher Power, McKinzie and Owendale receive the A designation from me for multi-race wagers, while Code of Honor falls into the B category from the far outside post.