Analysis: High Velocity looks like the Robert B. Lewis Stakes value

Given the hype surrounding Thousand Words and Tizamagician in Saturday's Grade 3, $100,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, it is difficult to imagine an acceptable price on either at Santa Anita Park. If there is a viable third option in this short field, bettors can look elsewhere instead of eating 2-1 or lower on those horses.

High Velocity, who faded to third in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), looks like the one. Because he dropped out of contention last time, this Bob Baffert-trained colt is likely to go somewhat ignored by the public. Yet there are reasons to give High Velocity another shot.

To start, High Velocity is working superbly. Two of his January drills are available online through XBTV.com, and Sunday's breeze is flawless from a visual aspect.

High Velocity broke well along with his stablemate, Fantastic Day. The two of them initially ran together before High Velocity gained a narrow advantage and kept it as they traveled on the far side.

On the turn, High Velocity began to draw clear under no visible urging, while Fantastic Day was asked multiple times and kept losing ground. In the stretch run, High Velocity coasted to the wire in a straight line with a smooth lead switch.

It is understood High Velocity received a six-furlong time and Fantastic Day received a four-furlong time. Fantastic Day was supposed to stop sooner than High Velocity anyway. Yet, Fantastic Day's exercise rider still kept asking him up until the top of the stretch.

Fantastic Day is an un-raced maiden, but he did cost $500,000 as a yearling.

In High Velocity's Jan. 14 move move, he outworked his stablemate in a less explosive manner. Regardless, note how High Velocity is never asked in the stretch, but he switched leads smoothly and ran straight. Meanwhile, his workmate was asked multiple times to keep up and ultimately fell at least five or six lengths behind toward the wire.

With all that said, some horses work spectacular in the mornings and disappoint in the afternoons. Considering the lack of value in this race elsewhere, though, these breezes are worth noting given High Velocity entered the Los Alamitos Futurity as a promising winner of Del Mar's Bob Hope Stakes (G3).

In the Futurity, Thousand Words beat High Velocity going this same 1 1/16-mile distance, however, and that rival stablemate is back again in the Lewis.

High Velocity contested the pace with Thousand Words and fought through most of the stretch before ultimately fading. He deserves a pass, though.

Consider that High Velocity ran over a wet, sealed track for the first time. He also absorbed pressure every step of the way through a fast pace. TimeformUS didn't label it as such, but splits of 22.47 and 45.87 look like testing fractions for a two-turn route. In the Starlet Stakes (G1) later in the card, the talented Bast opened in 22.80 and 47.22 before winning. 

Granted, Thousand Words applied the pressure, went on to put High Velocity away and fought Breeders' Cup runner-up Anneau D'Or for the win. But with High Velocity drawn outside of Thousand Words this time with a new jockey in Joel Rosario, the outcome could be different. What if Rosario rates High Velocity?

Thousand Words won his only other start, giving him a 2-for-2 record. He also owns the high TimeformUS figures in this field at 114 and 115.

But his morning workouts of late are average at best. Or, perhaps he's a lazy work horse.

For example, watch Thousand Words get outworked by Paint Me Lucky on Jan. 13. Thousand Words is asked multiple times in the stretch, but Paint Me Lucky beats him to the wire under a motionless exercise rider.

Paint Me Lucky is an 0-for-5 maiden.

In fairness, Thousand Words' two later workouts with stablemate Dessman improved visually, with Thousand Words getting the edge late on both Jan. 20 and again Monday.

Thousand Words' value is non-existent, and he's a win contender nonetheless.

The third major player in the Lewis is Tizamagician, an almost certain second choice off his local Jan. 1 maiden score by 2 ½ lengths. He earned a 107 TimeformUS figure, which is still slower than the 110 High Velocity picked up for third in the Los Alamitos Futurity. Plus, this slow-developing colt took six tries to win.

Tizamagician stretches out slightly to 1 1/16 miles now, and the longer distance could help him improve. He runs like a long-winded grinder.

Expect Tizamagician to settle a few lengths behind the pace. If the two Baffert entries decide to duel each other, this one will benefit.

The race clearly comes down to High Velocity, Thousand Words and Tizamagician. High Velocity sports a higher last-race TimeformUS Speed Figure than Tizamagician and comes into this race with at least two visually pleasing workouts.

If High Velocity is the third choice, then he is the right play. This Baffert colt deserves one more chance before writing him off as a one-turn horse.