Analysis: Revisit betting Hidden Scroll in the Count Fleet Sprint

On paper, the Grade 3, $350,000 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap at Oaklawn Park is one of the most exciting sprint races of the year with a potential star in Hidden Scroll and other quality horses such as Whitmore, Bobby’s Wicked One and Flagstaff lined up. Whoever wins this race on Saturday can be considered a division frontrunner.

Because of the hype behind Hidden Scroll last year and disappointing results, he deservedly earned the label of a money burner. Perhaps the time was not right to reach his potential. But the 4-year-old Hard Spun colt returned with a dazzling 12 ½-length win last month, hinting that he could now make that expected leap forward.

Hidden Scroll won against a soft allowance optional claiming field at Gulfstream on March 1, but he prevailed against those horses easily enough to believe a successful campaign lies ahead. 

After the start, Unpublished briefly took the lead. But after Hidden Scroll moved up on his own power alongside Unpublished, Unpublished crumbled under pressure and gradually faded. 

As Hidden Scroll secured the lead, Lord Adare makes his move and momentarily reached Hidden Scroll’s flank. Hidden Scroll started to quicken though, while his rider John Velazquez sat motionless. If Velazquez urged him at all, it's not visible.

At the top of the stretch, Velazquez gave Hidden Scroll some light urging, and Hidden Scroll opened up like a good horse should.

Hidden Scroll earned a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure, adjusted down from a raw 116 because of the slow pace.

This is undoubtedly a tougher task. But Hidden Scroll drew Post 7, which will allow him to initially settle into the pressing position again outside of Bobby’s Wicked One. When two speed horses meet, the outside horse holds the advantage because the inside horse will feel both a horse to his right and the rail to his inside.

Hidden Scroll does not need to look Bobby’s Wicked One directly in the eye in the first half mile of this six-furlong event, but he can sit on his flank or even a half-length to a length behind. If star potential is there for Hidden Scroll, he will tackle Bobby's Wicked One on the turn and eventually put him away.

From there, it is only a matter of how much separation Hidden Scroll creates to the closers. Even if the pace is fast, I believe he can hold on after opening up in early stretch.

Value-wise, 4-1 is a great price to take on Hidden Scroll. More realistically, his odds may fall to 5/2 or 3-1, but those are still acceptable prices to take on this talented colt.

If the pace is too fast after all and Hidden Scroll fails to get the job done, then Flagstaff is a likely horse to take advantage. Flagstaff possesses good speed himself, but at six furlongs, he can be expected to fall a few lengths behind the leaders.

In his most recent start, Flagstaff won the San Carlos Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park. He also ran second by a neck in the Palos Verdes Stakes (G2) after an opportunistic Captain Scotty led the field through a slow pace.

For those two efforts, Flagstaff earned a 120 and 118 on the TimeformUS scale.

Last fall, Flagstaff finished third in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G1), 2 ½ lengths behind then-3-year-olds Omaha Beach and Shancelot. He returned to win the Damascus Stakes by a nose over Roadster on the Breeders’ Cup undercard.

Clearly, the credentials exist to take Flagstaff seriously in this spot. If Bobby’s Wicked One and Hidden Scroll go crazy on the lead, or if other speed horses such as Mr. Jagermeister or Share the Upside also become involved early, it will benefit a horse sitting right behind them such as Flagstaff. He is a major contender.

Whitmore also looks like a threat after snapping a seven-race losing streak in the local Hot Springs Stakes. He won by 2 ½ lengths by stalking the pace closely in third and mowing down the uncontested leader Mr. Jagermeister in the stretch run.  

Two starts ago, Whitmore encountered traffic problems on his way to a runner-up finish in the King Cotton Stakes, 1 ½ lengths behind Share the Upside.

For those two races, Whitmore earned numbers of 114 and 121 from TimeformUS. The 114 figure was adjusted down from a raw 119 because of the slow pace.

Bobby’s Wicked One is possible to ignore given his post position and the other speed lined up outside of him. Because of Hidden Scroll’s presence in Post 7, as well as Mr. Jagermeister and Share the Upside in Posts 6 and 10, Bobby’s Wicked One will not enjoy a comfortable lead even if he sets the pace.

Last year, Hidden Scroll took heat from bettors after missing the board in the Florida Derby (G1) and losing an allowance optional claimer one start later. But horses can mature and grow with time. From how his return race looks visually, Hidden Scroll is a different horse after the break he took following the optional claiming loss, and he may have found a new niche around one turn; that is, after all, where his debut victory came in a jaw-dropping first out performance.

In a race void of plausible longshots on top, Hidden Scroll is the main choice, while Flagstaff and Whitmore are the two other horses to consider. Save the double-digit options such as Hog Creek Hustle and Nitrous for the underneath positions.